30 game, 2 cold to me, I have AT on Axx

[gaming_mouse]

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I like the flop 3-bet

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It felt right to me at the time too, but I was responding mostly on instinct -- "He's raising with any draw or any ace here, maybe even any pair, so f him" -- and thinking about it more I still think it is probably correct: oringal better could easily be on a draw too, will probably pay off with a worse ace, etc.

The only thing I have reservations about is that a 30/20 is probably capable of raising the turn on a draw too, and this makes my turn b/f dangerous. Likewise, a plan to turn bet/calldown is almost certainly -EV, so the 3bet sets us up for these errors.

All in all, though, I think that (while it's possible) a turn semibluff raise by him is not likely, as he should be expecting to get called down here alot.

[cdlarmore]

I fold and expect to see a set or ace two pairing with this play given preflop action, I know this is going to be contrary to other peoples advice, but i have a crap feeling about it...

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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I like the flop 3-bet and assume that this guy would iso-raise with A6 and A7 preflop. 30/20 players don't overlimp in the cutoff very often, and I don't think these hands fit the bill for it anyway (I would worry about 22 or 33 if he could have a set with these).

The turn 4 is not a great card because he could possibly have 85s and A4s is somewhat more likely than A6 or A7. Now I'm not even sure about calling the turn, even though I would do it at the table because I'd put him on 76s on the turn (and then A2 on the river). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I just cant believe this guy has 85s, I am calling the turn in this spot 100% of the time for the same reasons you would make this call miles. I dont know what I'm gonna do on the river yet, but im not folding the turn. Not when I have so many outs to outdraw A4.

PS: Preflop = standard and Flop check/3bet play is also standard.

[pokerjunky]

I'm still confused about the flop check. Please explain.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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I'm still confused about the flop check. Please explain.

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Yeah, I'd just bet the flop. This flop is fairly coordinated for an Axx board so I don't want it to get checked around and there are plenty of worse hands to collect value from. On the other hand, the my hand is not so strong that I'm all that excited about committing to check-raising when I don't know where the action is coming from. Betting just seems like the Occam's Razor play; the way this hand played out is pretty good evidence is why checking-and-seeing usually just winds up confusing you in these unraised pots.

[londomollari]

I'm confused how you're all putting the 30/20 range as mainly a draw? I don't see the value in raising with a draw if I'm him and there are only a few hands we beat I'd assume he has a set, two pair and sometimes A5/A4s also we've got utg behind us.

Nate, what would you do if you checked with this action?

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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Nate, what would you do if you checked with this action?

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I vaguely like calling and leading a safe turn, check-calling or check-folding a bad turn.

[admiralfluff]

It's 5 way, and we're first to act with what is very likely the best hand. This flop rarely gets checked through. If we bet we will be raised by strong draws, and better hands. There are lots of worse hands that will bet when checked to, but will only call if we bet. Checkraising here is an excellent way to get 2 bets in as opposed to 1 with a decent edge, and to buy some equity from draws that might call one, but not 2. It also gives us the option to fold if the action is really nasty. In this case, we are often ahead of the bettor, and the 30/20 is raising almost every single hand that's ahead of us preflop, and raising lots of weaker hands on the flop, so he's not much of a parlay for 3town. I c/r this flop 100% of the time, and think it's clearly the best play.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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It's 5 way, and we're first to act with what is very likely the best hand. This flop rarely gets checked through. If we bet we will be raised by strong draws, and better hands. There are lots of worse hands that will bet when checked to, but will only call if we bet. Checkraising here is an excellent way to get 2 bets in as opposed to 1 with a decent edge, and to buy some equity from draws that might call one, but not 2.

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Personally, I don't want to build a huge pot with a mediocre hand on a board with a lot of draws.

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It also gives us the option to fold if the action is really nasty.

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...or to get squeezed off our hand.

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In this case, we are often ahead of the bettor, and the 30/20 is raising almost every single hand that's ahead of us preflop, and raising lots of weaker hands on the flop, so he's not much of a parlay for 3town.

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I don't see why A6s, A7s, 76s, and perhaps 77 and 66 aren't all squarely in his range, even if he never overlimps with something like AJ. Plus UTG can have any of those hands. We aren't ahead of all that many A-x hands really.

Looking at some sims, if we're up against a weaker Ax hand and a good draw, our equity is good but not great, around 45-50%:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2506208
pokenum -h ad th - kc 9c - as 3s -- ac 6d 7c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ac 7c 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Th 420 46.51 426 47.18 57 6.31 0.497
Kc 9c 363 40.20 540 59.80 0 0.00 0.402
As 3s 63 6.98 783 86.71 57 6.31 0.101

OTOH, if we're dominated, we're in quite a bit of trouble.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2506205
pokenum -h ad th - kc 9c - as 7s -- ac 6d 7c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ac 7c 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Th 76 8.42 822 91.03 5 0.55 0.087
Kc 9c 332 36.77 571 63.23 0 0.00 0.368
As 7s 490 54.26 408 45.18 5 0.55 0.545

If you take sort of the weighted average of these scenarios, I don't see how we're getting much better than fair share here, especially once considering the risk of a 3-bet and that we have the first action on the turn if we want to re-take the initiative there.

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I c/r this flop 100% of the time, and think it's clearly the best play.

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Well, good for you. But why are you planning on check-raising? Because you hope the bet comes early in the field so that you can play a big pot? Because you hope that the bet comes late so that you can protect your hand?

Those are fairly contradictory objectives, and the thing is, in an unraised pot, we have no idea where the action is coming from, or even whether it's coming at all. It seems inherently wrong to me to make a play that could be an offensive check-raise if the action goes one way, and a defensive check-raise it goes another.

[admiralfluff]

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I don't see why A6s, A7s, 76s, and perhaps 77 and 66 aren't all squarely in his range, even if he never overlimps with something like AJ. Plus UTG can have any of those hands. We aren't ahead of all that many A-x hands really.


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When someone openlimps UTG+1 it is likely they are a bad player. The average 30/20 will be strongly inclined to iso-raise. I believe they are raising 66, 77, A6s, A7s, ATo+ nearly 100% of the time preflop. I think the most likely hand we are behind is 67s, which is a far less likely holding than the hands we are ahead that still raise this flop (weak As, fds, oesds, lower pair, pair + gs...). Yes, the open-limper could have AJ, AK, or AA, or whatever.

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OTOH, if we're dominated, we're in quite a bit of trouble.


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Clearly, if we're dominated we're in trouble. When is this not the case? The point is I think it is more likely he has a hand that is worse than ours.


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Quote:
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I c/r this flop 100% of the time, and think it's clearly the best play.


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Well, good for you. But why are you planning on check-raising? Because you hope the bet comes early in the field so that you can play a big pot? Because you hope that the bet comes late so that you can protect your hand?


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Just to clarify, I was not implying 'I am so smart look how confident I am'. My intention was to illuminate a significant discrepancy in poker opinions I respect (mine, and other posters in this thread).

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Those are fairly contradictory objectives

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I disagree with this statement, and think it's the central nugget of the issue.

Why must they be contradictory? There are spots in FL where the bimodal nature of the unknown game state can make one action correct for 2 very different reasons. Let's look at some examples for the 2 families of unknown action for a c/r, and compare those to the same situation for a lead. In case 1, we check and the bet is early. In case 2, we check and the bet is late.

Case 1:
We check, an early player bets, and there are callers. If the players are fairly standard, we have an equity edge, and should raise.

If we bet:
If the early player who would have bet has a hand that is relatively weak for his betting range, they will likely call, as well as the rest of the callers. This result puts in half as much money as the c/r with an edge that is larger on average.

If the early player who would have bet has a hand that is on the stronger side of his betting range, he may raise. The callers may fold or call depending on their holdings, and it is difficult to guess how this raise (isolated from the information of hand strength it provides) directly effects our pot equity. However, we are usually drawing in a smaller pot, and put 2 bets in the pot with an equity that on average is smaller than that if we c/r. This doesn't factor in times when our opponents 3bet, or fold to the c/r. Specific reads on extreme opponent tendencies can obviously sway the decision, but usually, a c/r is much better than a lead if an early player will bet a range weaker than our hand when we check.

Planning a c/r also gives us a specific informational advantage when there are rock and LAG limpers in the lineup. Usually one of the LAG limpers will bet, and we can go ahead and c/r. If a UTG rock limper bets the flop after we check, their range is well ahead of ours (usually AJ or AQ), so we can forgo the c/r and call, or even fold (depending on specifics).

Now let's consider case 2: We check and a late player bets.

The late bettor's range is even weaker than the early bettor's range. We have a clear equity edge, so raising for protection and value should be standard. Forcing players who would have called one bet to fold a share of equity or make bad calls for 2 bets is a good thing. Well what if we bet, get calls, and the late bettor raises? His raising hand is towards the top of his late betting range for made hands, + the same strong draws. Usually we will no longer have an equity edge and cannot reraise for value or protection. We call with significantly lower equity than we have with the c/r (the value gained from extra flop bets going in from other players should be negligible, or negative). As with the early bettor scenario, if we lead and everyone calls, but a late player WOULD have bet, the late player's range is very weak, and we would have gained if we could have c/rd.

There are also fringe cases, such as if it's 2 or 3 cold back to us after we check or bet, we almost always have to fold. When we check we fold almost exactly as often as when we bet, but end up putting significantly fewer bets into the pot before doing so. Arguably, these cases may be outweighed by the times the flop is checked through, and a bet would have almost always been better.

I hope this shows why I believe that in this type of situation (generally: pot is multiway, we have a good hand, a bet is very likely if we check, and the hand ranges for potiential bettors is weaker than our holding*) a c/r is best.

*exceptions to this might be if one of the potential bettors' ranges is significantly better than our holding. In this situation, even though we would be in a more favorable relationship if we bet and they call, as opposed to we check and they bet, we may gain valuable information by seeing them bet. (The information is valuable because its direct ev result (we fold, raise, whatever as opposed to call down, whatever) is larger than the cost of the information: the difference in equity between our hand v. their calling range and our hand v. their betting range).

p.s. I use too many parentheses.