5/10: Deep set against BoostedJ

[pethie]

We don't have much history. I've read that he's a pretty solid guy and I have ~3k hands on him (I'm pretty sure most if it is mined, 22/17). He's playing 5/10 and I'm spewing chips at 10/20 and this 5/10 table.

I don't know how he views me, or if he notices me at all. I'm probably 24/17 or something like that.

He could have nuts, set or a combodraw. I really doubt he'll push two pair on the turn. I also doubt he'll push a naked flushdraw, but maybe. I have no idea how often he'll 3-bet the flop with top or middle set.

I don't know much, actually

What do you do on the turn against him, and why?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($2700.38)
Button ($1901.81)
SB ($990)
BB ($2834.30)
UTG ($951.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $30</font>, Hero calls $30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) calls $25, BB calls $20.

Flop: ($120) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $85</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $300</font>, SB folds, BB calls $215.

Turn: ($720) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $500</font>, BB calls $2504.30 (All-In),

[KRANTZ]

booooooooooooooooooooosted

[luegofuego]

players with facial hair is 22-1 more likely to bluff. muck it quick fast.

[Boosted J]

I think this was a very interesting hand. I would have no idea what to do here vs. me. Any other input from anyone that may think they know the correect play?

[Nicok7]

What was your impression of the OP?

I have only played with you a little over the last 3 days but you seem to have very different gears and are certainly prone to push combo draws in this spot, or even make a move with close to nothing. A set is what you repp and makes perfect sense too, hence the problem.

My guess is that it boils down to your impression of hero.

You kept reraising me at some point today knowing that I would cbet or raise with not much, so if this hand had happenned then I would have called you for sure.

If you thought he was solid, and not prone to folding a set, and since he clearly played it like one, it's probably a fold.

If you thought you could bully him, and since you hadn't been caught out of line so far, you might be on a move wich makes it a big call.

So in short I like the call.

[kotkis]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.4019 % 49.40% 00.00% { 2c2h }
Hand 2: 50.5981 % 50.60% 00.00% { 99, AdJd, KdQd, KdJd, QJs, Qd9d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jd8d, T9s, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, 7d6d }

This is the most favourable handrange I can come up with, and you're still not getting the odds to call (we need 54%). This is assuming Boosted never calls QJo and always 3-bets TT pre-flop, and that he's pushing all the combo draws using the call - CRAI line, which I think is pretty unlikely. Looks like a fold to me.

[JMa]

if im folding to a push i think i am checking the turn

[restrikt]

Boosted. Got lucky with that QJ eh?

[CopTHIS]

[ QUOTE ]
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.4019 % 49.40% 00.00% { 2c2h }
Hand 2: 50.5981 % 50.60% 00.00% { 99, AdJd, KdQd, KdJd, QJs, Qd9d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jd8d, T9s, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, 7d6d }

This is the most favourable handrange I can come up with, and you're still not getting the odds to call (we need 54%). This is assuming Boosted never calls QJo and always 3-bets TT pre-flop, and that he's pushing all the combo draws using the call - CRAI line, which I think is pretty unlikely. Looks like a fold to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where does 54% come from? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I'd probably call this against him.

[kotkis]

Oops [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Shouldn't post while I'm dead tired, and I can't even edit my post to avoid further embarrasement [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]