JJ middle position, in the money

[pocketjacks]

I was playing a $10 rebuy on UB and this hand came up. Would appreciate feedback:

Situation: 20 paid, we have 17 left. About 510k chips in play. Blinds 800/1600
with a 150 ante. 8 handed, so 3,600 in the pot.

Me (41k): JsJc (above average)
BB (28k): XyXy

It's folded to me in 3rd position, and I made it 4100 to go (my standard raise
late in a tourney from that position) and its folded to the BB. He raises me an
additional 8k, costing me 12k (approx 1/3) of my stack to call. He has committed
almost half his stack. Your play is:

1. Fold: Only lose 1/10 your stack and still in decent shape to chip up.

2. Call: Cost yourself 1/3 if its a low flop he might check/fold. However, he
may push flop regardless.

3. Push: Hope you're racing or he has TT. Left with 13k and an M of about 4 and
under 10 BB's if you're wrong or lose a race.



Thoughts?

[ItalianFX]

Any reads on BB or what you think of his play?

[pocketjacks]

[ QUOTE ]
Any reads on BB or what you think of his play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Big Blind has played pretty straight forward. Haven't seen him get out of line. Has made a few resteal's on late position raisers, but hasn't really shown down many hands.

[Beachman42]

With that thin read, I think pot odds support a push:

1. You have him covered and by initially raising your standard amount you rep AA/KK/AK here

2. He is making a decision for his MTT life, not you. Thus your FE is highest right now.

3. His odds lean towards him calling with a range you do well against (lots of Ak/Aq/JJ/TT/99? combos with AA-QQ)

4. You have pot odds for any race.

If he called your push (your wording in your post leads me to believe that you considered folding in hindsight, not in the heat of battle) and had AA-QQ or got lucky, then that sucks. However, you *really* should have a better read on your table by this point in the MTT.

Questions to ponder - How likely is AA/KK/ maybe QQ to flat call looking for more action? What would villian push with here? Is he re-stealing more aggro here since his typical re-steals were successful?

As I get deeper, I begin to close more distractions (fewer tables, no email/2+2, etc.) I think you should now appreciate the need for stronger reads late.

[AragornX151]

I would tend to push there given your M, unless you have a very strong read that the reraiser would only do that with QQ-AA.

[tinty]

I agree with the push if he's been restealing but i'm not entirely convinced by your reasoning,

[ QUOTE ]
1. You have him covered and by initially raising your standard amount you rep AA/KK/AK here

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no way he's putting him on that 'just because he raised his standard amount' without him having played super super nitty which is not mentioned in OP

[ QUOTE ]
2. He is making a decision for his MTT life, not you. Thus your FE is highest right now.

3. His odds lean towards him calling with a range you do well against (lots of Ak/Aq/JJ/TT/99? combos with AA-QQ)


[/ QUOTE ]

He has the odds to call your push with almost all his holdings, 3:1 ish so your FE is reduced a lot. however you are right that this is his tourney near the real money and he may choke and just want to conserve half his stack

I think it is key to know more about his resteals, is this a standard reraise for him?

[ QUOTE ]
As I get deeper, I begin to close more distractions (fewer tables, no email/2+2, etc.) I think you should now appreciate the need for stronger reads late.

[/ QUOTE ] Too true, more reads would've made this decision a lot easier, I think it is key to know more about his resteals, is this a standard reraise for him?
but i think i'm still pushing unless all his other steals have been pushes. this is the time to pick up some key chips for the FT and if he knows that aswell you're probably in pretty good shape. unlucky if this resteal was one of the 3 hands you're behind.

sorry messed up the qouting a bit.