The differences between 1929 and Today

[lehighguy]

Agreed. Your right that nobody wants a sudden crash. If they don't all panic and try to get out first they can do that. 10-20% yearly depreciation of the dollar, you bet.

You can only play a game of chicken for so long before Asians decide they have accumulated enough of our wealth ad they are going to focus on domestic demand.

[Copernicus]

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed. Your right that nobody wants a sudden crash. If they don't all panic and try to get out first they can do that. 10-20% yearly depreciation of the dollar, you bet.

You can only play a game of chicken for so long before Asians decide they have accumulated enough of our wealth ad they are going to focus on domestic demand.

[/ QUOTE ]

and the exact same things were being said in late 80s early 90s (ZOMG, the Japanese have bought Pebble Beach, they are going to own everything soon).

A much greater problem arises if the OPEC countries try to compensate for lost buying power by raising prices. Thanks to our retarded energy policies (thank you Greenies) we are even more vulnerable than we were during the oil embargo.

[lehighguy]

Someone elses words, but good.

MattTheSkywalker
Member Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: NY / Palm Beach
Posts: 5,303



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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Diabolical Biz Markie
FWIW,

We've been through this before, with people predicting gloom and doom for the US economy. The "Great Reckoning" which sounds like it might be MTS's favorite book, was written in the early 90s (maybe before...but I remember reading it in the early 90s).

never read it. Empire of Debt, that's a good book.



Quote:
Japan was going to own all the US, and we were all going to be broke.

If you think this is the same, you misunderstood conditions then and now.

Japan in the late 80s was even dumber than we were. Deflation at home killed them and they sold their trophy US assets at fire sale prices. Do you imagine the oil kingdoms experiencing deflation? Is world demand for oil ebbing? I wish....but no, it's not. So these people will still certainly invest in the US just not in the government debt, which is what we've counted on for so long.

The two largest shareholders in our largest bank are Arabs. Nothing to see here? maybe not. But when the board was ushering CEO Chuck Prince out, they had to brief Riyadh. At best, this is unusual. A sign? I don't know.

Two bailouts in less than 20 years tells me that something stinks. The US never went to the Japanese for a bailout. The Japanese were over-reaching, proud of their re-ascent, and they paid for their hubris. Arabs are not the late 80s Japanese, and oil wasn't $90+a barrel then either.

Nor was the dollar at its lowest ever value in the late 80s. Nor was a productive segment of our society retiring en masse. And our debt loads were a few trillion lighter.

Otherwise, it was exactly the same.

[Moseley]

[ QUOTE ]
A much greater problem arises if the OPEC countries try to compensate for lost buying power by raising prices. Thanks to our retarded energy policies (thank you Greenies) we are even more vulnerable than we were during the oil embargo.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are pumpin oil out of Alaska like it's goin outta style. Problem is: we are shippin the bulk of it to Japan, at a discount to the market price, in exchange for them financing our deficit.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A much greater problem arises if the OPEC countries try to compensate for lost buying power by raising prices. Thanks to our retarded energy policies (thank you Greenies) we are even more vulnerable than we were during the oil embargo.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are pumpin oil out of Alaska like it's goin outta style. Problem is: we are shippin the bulk of it to Japan, at a discount to the market price, in exchange for them financing our deficit.

[/ QUOTE ]

que tin foil hat.

please source this. i'm assuming you have data that show that japan's oil purchases from alaska are below market price.

espeically seeing as how oil is pumped out by private institutions and the deficit is a government issue, the govt would have to provide compensation to the companies for selling to japan at below market prices.

try again though

Barron

[Moseley]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A much greater problem arises if the OPEC countries try to compensate for lost buying power by raising prices. Thanks to our retarded energy policies (thank you Greenies) we are even more vulnerable than we were during the oil embargo.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are pumpin oil out of Alaska like it's goin outta style. Problem is: we are shippin the bulk of it to Japan, at a discount to the market price, in exchange for them financing our deficit.

[/ QUOTE ]

que tin foil hat.

please source this. i'm assuming you have data that show that japan's oil purchases from alaska are below market price.

espeically seeing as how oil is pumped out by private institutions and the deficit is a government issue, the govt would have to provide compensation to the companies for selling to japan at below market prices.

try again though

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

The U.S. subsidizes the price difference.

My source: it was on either CNN or FOX about 1-2 yrs ago.

I don't make crap up.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A much greater problem arises if the OPEC countries try to compensate for lost buying power by raising prices. Thanks to our retarded energy policies (thank you Greenies) we are even more vulnerable than we were during the oil embargo.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are pumpin oil out of Alaska like it's goin outta style. Problem is: we are shippin the bulk of it to Japan, at a discount to the market price, in exchange for them financing our deficit.

[/ QUOTE ]

que tin foil hat.

please source this. i'm assuming you have data that show that japan's oil purchases from alaska are below market price.

espeically seeing as how oil is pumped out by private institutions and the deficit is a government issue, the govt would have to provide compensation to the companies for selling to japan at below market prices.

try again though

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

The U.S. subsidizes the price difference.

My source: it was on either CNN or FOX about 1-2 yrs ago.

I don't make crap up.

[/ QUOTE ]

just because you don't make it up doesn't mean it is true. CNN & FOX aren't reliable sources. it shouldn't be hard to see whether the US gives the difference in oil prices to companies that sell to japan.

so i'd like to see some kind of source before even considering that. japan's purchases of govt securities aren't as a result of oil but rather as a historic tendency to want to control the level of their currency. further, they have trade surpluses w/ the US so those two are why they have such huge foreign exchange reserves of USDs.

Barron

[Moseley]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A much greater problem arises if the OPEC countries try to compensate for lost buying power by raising prices. Thanks to our retarded energy policies (thank you Greenies) we are even more vulnerable than we were during the oil embargo.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are pumpin oil out of Alaska like it's goin outta style. Problem is: we are shippin the bulk of it to Japan, at a discount to the market price, in exchange for them financing our deficit.

[/ QUOTE ]

que tin foil hat.

please source this. i'm assuming you have data that show that japan's oil purchases from alaska are below market price.

espeically seeing as how oil is pumped out by private institutions and the deficit is a government issue, the govt would have to provide compensation to the companies for selling to japan at below market prices.

try again though

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

The U.S. subsidizes the price difference.

My source: it was on either CNN or FOX about 1-2 yrs ago.

I don't make crap up.

[/ QUOTE ]

just because you don't make it up doesn't mean it is true. CNN & FOX aren't reliable sources. it shouldn't be hard to see whether the US gives the difference in oil prices to companies that sell to japan.

so i'd like to see some kind of source before even considering that. japan's purchases of govt securities aren't as a result of oil but rather as a historic tendency to want to control the level of their currency. further, they have trade surpluses w/ the US so those two are why they have such huge foreign exchange reserves of USDs.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

That's an acceptable response. Just don't accuse me of wearing a tinfoil hat.