[NL400] Rivered set. Must I call, raise/fold, raise/call ?

13_Xerxes · #1 10-31-2007, 01:38 AM

Villain is a regular 23/18/3. He plays NL400 for at least 6 months.
I am a std 19/15 TAGNIT.

I think the flop float is good (only one overcard, he can C-Bet with almost anything. Maybe should I bet the turn ?
River is tricky, because it's complet str8 draw, BDFD and my set.
Is raise fold the best line ? Or just call ?

Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($427.30)
Button ($425.50)
SB ($262.05)
BB ($101.80)
UTG ($404)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $14, Hero calls $14, 3 folds.

Flop: ($34) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $25, Hero calls $25.

Turn: ($84) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($84) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $65, Hero [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

jcl · #2 10-31-2007, 01:45 AM

Betting the turn is ok because he can't possibly have a made hand that checks two flush draws so you might as well protect but checking isn't horrible either. As played this is an easy river raise...you 100% have the best hand. If I am him and I flop a straight draw with 45 or turn a flush draw after cbetting and getting called I am pretty psyched and am double barreling the turn every time. There is no way he checks the turn to see if he hits and then bets. This is like air 80% of the time IMO and is one of those ill-conceived bluffs that you should be profiting from heaps if you are a good hand reader (i.e. callable without the 6 river). The other 20% of the time I'd say he has Jx and is making a value bet (weird line though).

xker17x · #3 10-31-2007, 01:54 AM

if ur saying its air 80% and Jx 20% shouldnt u just call seeing as how those hands cant stand the heat of a raise? ur making it sound as though u think hes very polar to nothing/small small something or maybe tiny chance he has something larger than 666?....in which case a call makes the most sense, right?

xker17x · #4 10-31-2007, 01:56 AM

btw xerxes i played with u on PS earlier today and u seem like a solid player are u a 2/4 reg on PS?

cbboy · #5 10-31-2007, 01:59 AM

Flop is standard. Turn check is fine. I like raising the river.

jcl · #6 10-31-2007, 02:00 AM

erh if you're in the business of not raising with monsters just to see what they got then sure...anyway if you raise they don't see what you have anyway if they fold which is arguably even more valuable

anyway, there's always a chance you get money: either they call with Jx (definitely not unreasonable since they might feel their hand is underepped or hidden) or they reshove bluff (ur line is equally weird for the same reason that a made hand would bet on the turn when checked to, while a medium hand would check behind the turn and just call the river, so ur repping 66 or air really so this is a fantastic chance to raise vs a thinking opponent).

If they do either even ONCE, then raising > calling.

xker17x · #7 10-31-2007, 02:05 AM

i wasnt saying that i thought this was an auto call, i didnt really give my opinion i was just questioning ur reasoning for the raise cuz IMO it iddnt make sense, and them rererebluffshoving isnt worth discussing so disregard a potential rebluff from his range plz

jcl · #8 10-31-2007, 02:12 AM

well even without that, if P(call with Jx) > 0 then raising strictly dominates calling moneywise. if you place a huge emphasis on information then i guess u could just call or for image reasons ("look what i just call you down with imagine what i have if i raise the river" type thing)

and i dont c why rebluff shoving isnt in their range it's very unlikely we have anything here since we look like we're trying to rep a flush but a flush draw probably bets the turn when checked to. if he thinks that then he may very well reshove

orange · #9 10-31-2007, 02:15 AM

$222 on river

Colombo · #10 10-31-2007, 02:22 AM

hate turn check