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Old 08-31-2007, 12:19 PM
13_Xerxes 13_Xerxes is offline
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Default [NL200] Huge draw semi bluff, BvB. How is my line ?

Vill is good, I think (22/22/8[130]) and I think he knows I can beat TP if I raise the turn.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($256.35)
SB ($202)
Hero ($205)
UTG ($195.55)
MP ($136.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $8</font>, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($16) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $14</font>, Hero calls $14.

Turn: ($44) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $36</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $183 and is all in</font>

I don't raise this flop to mix my game (I raise often with draws and position). If he checks the turn, I will bet for sure. I have 3 new outs on the turn, maybe my king is good if I pair it, and I don't see him call me if a heart or a T come at the river.

How is my line ?
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  #2  
Old 08-31-2007, 12:28 PM
cfb1739 cfb1739 is offline
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Default Re: [NL200] Huge draw semi bluff, BvB. How is my line ?

Fold pre-flop? I always open suited kings from the cut off and button, but K3s seems a little weak to be calling raises w/, even in position.

As for the hand, after small blind bets the turn I think you have zero fold equity, and that's critical in order for this play to be profitable. I would probably fold.

His line looks strong. What hand do think he's potting the flop and turn with, yet folding to a raise, on this board in this bvb situation?
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  #3  
Old 08-31-2007, 12:31 PM
13_Xerxes 13_Xerxes is offline
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Default Re: [NL200] Huge draw semi bluff, BvB. How is my line ?

Are you happy (if you are SB) to get in with AQ, AA or KK ?

I can have top 2, made my str8 with T8 or KJ...

And I think he will fire a second barrel often with the Q, isn'it ?
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  #4  
Old 08-31-2007, 12:35 PM
sh58 sh58 is offline
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Default Re: [NL200] Huge draw semi bluff, BvB. How is my line ?

i would always fold PF first of all, and i think raising the flop is beter than the turn, you have less FE, but more actual equity. it isn't a bad line though, i can't see him calling alot, and when he does, you have alot of outs.
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  #5  
Old 08-31-2007, 01:04 PM
HoldEmNewby HoldEmNewby is offline
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Default Re: [NL200] Huge draw semi bluff, BvB. How is my line ?

He'll call you with AQ,QJ,KT,KK,AA,99,JJ,22,QQ,Q9,J9. Its a blind blind battle so he'll call you down light, that said people tend to act stupid and double barrel light in blind/blind battles. If you get called you're drawing to 12 outs.

Here is how I see it-
Our break even equation: 80x +y(EV)= 0
where x+y=100 (ratio over 100 hands)
x is the % of times villain folds to our push
y is the amount of times our push gets call
EV is our EV per hand
and 80 is the amount we win if he folds to our push

We want to solve for X, but first we need to calculate our EV

*If we get called and suck out we win $181 ($80 in the pot plus $101 villain has behind him)
*If we get called and lose we drop $101 dollars
*there are 46 cards unknown 12 of those cards give us the win
*33 of those cards don't

EV=181x12 - 101x33
EV=-25.23

Back to our original equation, plugging in EV:
80x -25.23y=0
y=100-x
80x-2523 +25.23x=0
x=2523/105.23
x=24%

So if you see him folding at least 24% of the time you do this, you're sitting in +EV. I think he folds about that.
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  #6  
Old 08-31-2007, 02:39 PM
13_Xerxes 13_Xerxes is offline
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Default Re: [NL200] Huge draw semi bluff, BvB. How is my line ?

Nice demonstration HENewby (I have not understand all the lines, but the conclusion is great [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ).
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