NL Bet Sizing: a hand example

[Assani Fisher]

I'm not going to post with a hand converter, but if you don't feel like reading through the HH, then just skip it and I'll recap it below:


Full Tilt Poker Game #3260190618: Table Vandalia - $1/$2 - No Limit Omaha H/L - 12:49:48 ET - 2007/08/15
Seat 1: rlgolf ($112.35)
Seat 2: Assani Fisher ($268.70)
Seat 3: Enjoy Peace ($60)
Seat 4: ASWWW ($55.50)
Seat 5: MegaDisgruntled ($183)
Seat 6: buzzing ($270.70)
Seat 7: rdevil21 ($257)
Seat 8: TheWhtWhale ($55.70)
Seat 9: sald868 ($334.50)
MegaDisgruntled posts the small blind of $1
buzzing posts the big blind of $2
Enjoy Peace posts $2
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Assani Fisher [Ah Qh 6s 5s]
rdevil21 calls $2
TheWhtWhale folds
sald868 calls $2
rlgolf folds
Assani Fisher has 15 seconds left to act
Assani Fisher calls $2
Enjoy Peace checks
ASWWW calls $2
MegaDisgruntled raises to $4
buzzing folds
rdevil21 calls $2
sald868 calls $2
Assani Fisher calls $2
Enjoy Peace has 15 seconds left to act
Enjoy Peace folds
ASWWW calls $2
*** FLOP *** [As Qs 8c]
Enjoy Peace stands up
MegaDisgruntled checks
rdevil21 checks
sald868 checks
action on Assani Fisher


Recap: Small raise preflop and 6 players to the flop has the pot at around $25. I flop top two pair, bad flush draw, and a bad low draw.

Obviously this hand doesn't want to play against a big field since most of my draws wouldn't be good.


I'll save my analysis for later, but I basically want to know what you'd bet the majority of the time. I think that bet sizing in NLO8 is something that I'm still working on and could improve. Of course you can always fall back on a pot sized bet, but with that you'll often give people too good of odds to their draws.

So while I did provide a specific hand, I'd like to also have a general discussion of bet sizing if possible. How often do you overbet the pot and with what hands? It seems simpler to just go all in on many occassions, but I have to think that we're leaving some money on the table by doing that in that we don't give our opponents a chance to make a mistake of calling when they're not getting the odds to do so.

[bbartlog]

This difficulty is really the main reason that I don't play NLO8. Well, that and the fact that at any given table there's usually one or two people pursuing the 'push preflop with any AAxx hand' strategy, which makes things less enjoyable.
Anyway, I don't have a good answer to the question. I lean towards betting 2x the pot, with a view towards going all-in on a good turn card (assuming someone calls the flop). But I haven't had much experience with NLO8.

[StrikeR300]

This is really an important topic for this game, I don't know why there isn't ever any good discusions on NLO8 on here (is there somewhere??). I can't help but think there is some secret book, & no one wants to share any of the information in it.

From watching the better players though, I believe the advice would be PUUUUUUUUSSSSSSSSHHHHH.

[davebreal]

push, hope that mega's A23s or A24s bricks.

in all seriousness, this is a push for me. there are so many scary cards that can come on the turn, and it will be impossible to know where you're out (excluding A or Q turn). just doesn't seem like a hand you can milk in a multiway pot.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know why there isn't ever any good discusions on NLO8 on here (is there somewhere??).

[/ QUOTE ]

seems like the # of NLO8 players on the forum has escalated recently. i do better in pot limit, but take when i can get on the sites.

[Assani Fisher]

I understand the thought and reason behind pushing. However my contention is this:

Theres clearly an amount that would give our opponents neither +EV nor -EV opportunity to call in order to chase their draws. Pushing obviously gives them a -EV opportunity should they call(assuming they're chasing or course and not already ahead of us).

However you're very unlikely to be called if you push. Now maybe you want that- after all, there is a decent amount of money in the pot already.

However while pushing may give us a positive expectation, is there no alternative that may give us even more of a positive long term expectation? Are there not certain opponents that would not call a push yet would call an amount that is way too much for them to call profitably and then they'd furthermore be priced into calling on the river?

[franknagaijr]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand the thought and reason behind pushing. However my contention is this:

Theres clearly an amount that would give our opponents neither +EV nor -EV opportunity to call in order to chase their draws. Pushing obviously gives them a -EV opportunity should they call(assuming they're chasing or course and not already ahead of us).

However you're very unlikely to be called if you push. Now maybe you want that- after all, there is a decent amount of money in the pot already.

However while pushing may give us a positive expectation, is there no alternative that may give us even more of a positive long term expectation? Are there not certain opponents that would not call a push yet would call an amount that is way too much for them to call profitably and then they'd furthermore be priced into calling on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

What you're describing sounds a lot like the sections on bet sizing in Sklansky & Miller. The basic idea is that if you feel you are ahead, you have to figure out how much you are ahead by, and bet enough that if the cards were face up, they would be making a mistake. Obv, there's more to it than that, but I don't feel like parroting the whole book.

[StrikeR300]

[ QUOTE ]
Theres clearly an amount that would give our opponents neither +EV nor -EV opportunity to call in order to chase their draws

[/ QUOTE ]
Against 5 4 card hands (almost half the deck) drawing both ways, how far do you think you are ahead of the feild? What about stack sizes here? Only one other player in this hand has you covered, & a few are fairly short.

In conclusion I have no idea [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img], but I would pay a little extra money to get this hand HU/get a donk call from a shorty.

[D-Grief]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand the thought and reason behind pushing. However my contention is this:

Theres clearly an amount that would give our opponents neither +EV nor -EV opportunity to call in order to chase their draws. Pushing obviously gives them a -EV opportunity should they call(assuming they're chasing or course and not already ahead of us).

However you're very unlikely to be called if you push. Now maybe you want that- after all, there is a decent amount of money in the pot already.

However while pushing may give us a positive expectation, is there no alternative that may give us even more of a positive long term expectation? Are there not certain opponents that would not call a push yet would call an amount that is way too much for them to call profitably and then they'd furthermore be priced into calling on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really want callers here? Unless the turn is a A/Q/9 and no 9s you have a pretty hard task on subsequent streets. The big downside to pushing for me is you might well only be called when you are dog but that should not happen so often.

[franknagaijr]

Assani's thoughts and questions are valid ones. However, the hand example is a particularly awful one, since there are exactly four cards that we don't mind seeing on the turn, so unless we have a perfect read on the table, it makes sense to either shut the action down, or get out of topeka.

Assani - try reposting the concept with a hand that merits more discussion. There was a PLO8 hand last week where bet sizing with the third boat on the river was discussed that might merit revisiting.