Strange AKs in a satellite,Should I fold it preflop without the bubble

[kamel]

This hand really confused me.

Tournament Situation:
$5+R turbo super satellite for a $55 entry, no rebuy phase any more
55 players will get the entry, 75 players remaining
I guess, about t9000-t10000 might be enough to come to the money, but as everybody will wait at the bubble and the blinds will be probably very high, I think I just can't fold into the money

Reads:

I had a note on UTG from a former tournament, that he will always attack a sitting out BB.
He got his stack some hands ago by limp/calling-All-In preflop with about t7500 the former table chipleader who had about t1200 with KQ.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 (t6820)
CO (t7085)
<font color="#C00000">Button (t2580)</font>
SB (t3840)
BB (t9180)
<font color="#C00000">UTG (t18230)</font>
UTG+1 (t3945)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t12775)</font>

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls t800, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t800, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls t800, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t2500</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls t1700, Hero calls t1700, CO calls t1700.

Flop: (t10560) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t15650 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t10195 (All-In)

I would usually just shove AKs in this situation, especially against someone who is already basical ITM.
However, following my read, I thought that UTG is just a moron who will call me probably with any pocketpair, so I wanted to limp and play postflop weak-tight.
However, after I did that I realized that it might be a bad idea because there were a desperite shortstack behind. As played, I realized, I wouldn't have any fold equity any longer after he shoved to reshove out UTG and I also didn't want to fold it now, so I called it and planned to play fit or fold postflop.

However, I just got burned (otherwise I would not post it), so I'd like to know, whether my ideas and play were valid, or what might be better.
Shoving preflop instead of overlimping, hoping UTG is not moronic any more (thinking about it, it must be best)? Or ... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[b-komplex]

I think this deserves a bump so as not to escape the attention of the satellite specialists. Also no responses yet are because it's a very difficult situation.

I think it might be okay aside from the flop call but I think you do have FE to shove after UTG smooth calls the second time around. I think I probably do shove there and quite possibly the first time but I'm not sure that it's right.

Flop I think is a grit your teeth and muck.

[tomek322]

RR when it gets back to you the second time.

Komplex what do you put UTG on to make this a muck? Or is it based on this being a satelite?

[b-komplex]

[ QUOTE ]

Komplex what do you put UTG on to make this a muck? Or is it based on this being a satelite?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes cause its a sat, UTG overbets the pot into the only guy at the table who could cripple him when likely he could fold into the seat. Late in these draws are playing very passively also clearly TP is a big part of either players range.

In a regular MTT I call here unless UTG is a HUGE nit.

[Sherman]

Critical information is missing:

First, you have a guess about what it will take to get a seat. I'd prefer to know an exact number. The number I always want to know in satellites is what the average number of chips will be when the bubble bursts.

You can do this by simply multiplying the average stack by the number of players remaining. Then divide this number by the number of seats paid out. After the rebuy and add-on period of course.

Anyhow, I would also want to know your current position in the tournament. Are you in the top 30 in chips? Top 40? Bottom 10? You need to know this so you can have a reasonable expectation of how many people will go out before you do.

Finally, it would also be valuable to know how many people have less than 10BBs. Given that anything &lt; 10BBs is usually in A/I or fold mode, I think that is an important number as well as I usually consider those people in great danger of going out at any moment.

Anyhow, with that information, we can make a better judgment of what you should be doing PF.

Sherman

Edit: BTW, depending on the above information, the way you played the hand is terrible either way. You either should have been playing aggressive to try to gain more chips, by raising PF, or you should have been folding PF the first time around.

Taking the middle route of smooth calling is really problematic as you can see.

[kamel]

[ QUOTE ]
Critical information is missing:

First, you have a guess about what it will take to get a seat. I'd prefer to know an exact number. The number I always want to know in satellites is what the average number of chips will be when the bubble bursts.


[/ QUOTE ]

That will be t12050 IIRC. I usually multiply it by about 0.75 and guess, I could hold that stack, that should be enough to get into money, that's why I pronounced t9000-t10000.

[ QUOTE ]

Anyhow, I would also want to know your current position in the tournament.


[/ QUOTE ]

I've been about at place 25.

[ QUOTE ]

Finally, it would also be valuable to know how many people have less than 10BBs. Given that anything &lt; 10BBs is usually in A/I or fold mode, I think that is an important number as well as I usually consider those people in great danger of going out at any moment.


[/ QUOTE ]

Average Stack was about t6000, Big Blind t800 and as it was a turbo format, there are probably 30-40 players below 10 BBs and when the bubble arrives probably all but some are below 10 BBs, with the waiting politics of most players in this format, perhaps most but some below 5BBs.

[ QUOTE ]

Edit: BTW, depending on the above information, the way you played the hand is terrible either way. You either should have been playing aggressive to try to gain more chips, by raising PF, or you should have been folding PF the first time around.


[/ QUOTE ]

I really considered folding instead of the first overlimp when I played this hand, but then I told to myself, well it's still AKs, there's a high ante, because of the turbo format, folding might not be enough to get to the money.

So 2nd-In-folding against this loose-me-covering guy is a really valid option?
With &lt;10 guys to leave this tournament, I think, I would have folded.