The hand reading thread

[ottsville]

Someone in another thread asked about hand reading and I suggested we start a thread for players to post hands and explain their thoughts on each street so we could critique the thought process. This is the thread for that. To get it started, I'll post a hand. The history is goofed up for the converter since I don't have pt installed on my comp yet...but I'll include the relevant data. I'll also say that I am just learning NL after playing limit for the past two years, so my NL reasoning may not be the best, but I will show you how I thought about this hand.

NL25 Hero is playing somewhat tight, but aggressive when in a hand. Table is loose with mostly passive players. This hand is the only one I've gone to showdown with, but it leads up to the hand I want to post for this thread.

Hero is UTG with 7s8s and rses 3xbb, utg1 calls, bttn calls blinds fold - pot$2.60.
Flop comes 4c 5d 6c. Hero bets $2 utg1 folds, bttn calls, pot $4.50
turn 4s hero bets pot bttn calls pot ~$13.50
river Kh hero bets about 1/2 pot, bttn calls. hero wins with straight. UTG1 says "NH"

Several hands orbits later, this hand comes up:
Stacks:
hero $27.60
villain $18

Read: I'm not really paying all that much attention since I'm surfing and doing other stuff. Villain in this hand is UTG1 in the above hand. He's seen more flops than he should, but I don't really know about his cold call range. I'm assuming it's a little loose since he sees too many flops.

Hero is UTG1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, hero raises 5xbb, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, bttn calls pot ~$5

Since the table was loose, I raised more than normal to get the pot shorter handed. I'd rather play this vs 1 or 2 players than 3 or 4. I got more callers than I hoped and had no real reads on the other players.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets $3 Villain raises to $6 other players fold...

Ok...he caught a piece of this flop. Now I need to figure out which piece. If he had two pr, this might be a good play to get it heads up with me. If he's got a set, he's usually going to wait until the turn here since the board is dry and he might be able to milk the lp players for a flop call. So I think we can rule out a set here.
Now, my question is what does he put me on? He's seen me raise suitconns small in ep but I've been playing tight since then. A larger than normal raise should tell him that I want to play fewer players. Since he has been somewhat observant(see remark above) I think he should be able to make this connection but this is 25nl and we shouldn't give the opponents too much credit. I did make a smallish continuation bet, but there is an A on the board. If I don't have the A and he does he should assume that I will fold. Any other action should mean that he is beat.

When he minraises I'm thinking he either has a made two pr(AJ) or just an ace. If he's got just and ace I'm a big favorite, if he's got AJ, I'm a huge dog but he may fold to a push fearing a set on my part. He's got about $11 behind at this point and the pot is about $14 and it's $3 to me. If I have any fold equity when he does have AJ I think pushing is good here if I can safely assume that this is NOT a set. I push and he calls.
Turn 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
River 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He turns over A3o for two pr and wins.

Now, my hand reading was correct but I gave my opponent too much credit(or he didn't give me enough). He was a huge dog on the flop(just under 7:1) and should not have called. But, I love it that he did.

[ocdscale]

[ QUOTE ]
If I have any fold equity when he does have AJ I think pushing is good here if I can safely assume that this is NOT a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nit pick, but you never have any fold equity if he has AJ here (he gets almost 3:1 odds to call with top two pair, never fold situation).

Push is fine is because your reads put A9+ in his range and excludes sets. Over long run, you're way ahead here, so happy to get money in.

[Wilco23]

Thanks Otts. That someone was me. Hope this thread goes well.

[ottsville]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks Otts. That someone was me. Hope this thread goes well.

[/ QUOTE ]


Post a hand and tell us what you were thinking...The idea here is not "did you make the right decision." It is about the process of arriving at that decision.

Hand reading is a skill that comes from lots of experience - you will learn to recognize betting patterns, and from thinking about hands away from the table. There was hand in one of the higher stakes forums that was played out between two 2p2'ers and it was really deep into multilevel thinking since these players knew each other well. I wish I had a link to that post.

One of the mistakes that many new players make is thinking that they are going to sit down and be able to do what someone like Daniel Negreanu does with his card reading. The idea is not to put players on a specific hand like he does...it is to put them on a range, and modify that as the hand goes on. The example I posted was not really a good example of that since there was only two rounds of betting, but it was fresh in my mind and my dbases are on my old computer so finding a better hand was not possible right now.

Just post a hand...

[Small Fry]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I have any fold equity when he does have AJ I think pushing is good here if I can safely assume that this is NOT a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nit pick, but you never have any fold equity if he has AJ here (he gets almost 3:1 odds to call with top two pair, never fold situation).

Push is fine is because your reads put A9+ in his range and excludes sets. Over long run, you're way ahead here, so happy to get money in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Totally agree here. I think a significant majority of the time you're way ahead here (He's got Ace with worse kicker) so your decision is how do you get all his money. Will he call your push based on the previous action he's seen. Should you call his raise and then go for a check raise on the turn? Or call and lead the turn?

In summary. I don't think you should be fearing AJ and worrying about fold equity but should be thinking about how you get all his chips.

ps. another reason you have no fold equity is the same reason he called. You showed a hand previously that enticed him to call this one.

[ottsville]

Yeah...you make a good point. I did say that my nl reasoning might not be the best [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

"ps. another reason you have no fold equity is the same reason he called. You showed a hand previously that enticed him to call this one. "

Even then I still think he makes a ballsy call. I know I'm not making that. It does go to show that people may pay attention to what you play, but they often don't pay attention to what you DON'T play.

The point I hoped to get with this thread is to get some people who were wondering about hand reading to post a hand and explain their reasoning to generate some discussion on the topic.

[Small Fry]

I think he made a terrible call, BUT, if he thinks he is ahead of a large portion of your possible range then in his mind, it's a good call.

And that gets us to the second part of this thread. What is your opponent thinking? In this hand he's probably thinking about your 7,8 and that his Ace is good. The end.

I like the idea for this thread. Hopefully it'll catch on.

[mtagliaf]

I like the idea of this thread as well - I'm a beginner, and I've been asking for material to help with hand reading skills.

[ottsville]

Here's a hand quiz for all you newer players. I suggest you "grunch" this(post your thoughts without reading others' responses so you aren't influenced by other posters).

Full ring 1/2 LIMIT hold em.
Hero is in cutoff with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB runs about 19/12/1.3 for those of you who use PT, for those who don't, he is relatively tight/aggressive pre-flop and not too aggressive post.

Action:
Folds to Mp1 who calls, folds to hero who raises, Folds to BB who 3bets. MP1 calls, hero calls.

Flop comes 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB bets, MP1 folds, hero raises, BB 3bets, hero calls

Turn T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB bets hero calls

River K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB bets, hero raises, BB 3bets, hero caps...

What are BB's likely holdings PF?
What does the flop action tell us? What is his range of hands?
Can you isolate his hands further from the action?

[SaErDnaW]

Interesting thread!

With his stats in mind, I think it's a very strong hand. He is a tight player and 3-bets preflop from BB. I am thinking JJ+ or AK.

The question is now: Is he thinking about what you might have? You didn't cap preflop so you probably don't have a premium hand. Since the raise come from CO, it doesn't have to be a great hand either. You would probably raise with a wider range of hands.

You donk the flop and he suspects that you might have hit the J and wants to buy some information. It's also possible that you are on a draw like 65 or something. The 3-bet tells you that you are behind. He isn't afraid of J, and he doesn't believe you have an overpair. I am still thinking JJ+. You didn't cap the flop so he thinks you are on a draw or is afraid of overpairs.

Your call on the turn takes JT or TT or any set out of the question. You would probably raise here.

I think the river is most confusing. If you are still hanging on and the third flushcard hits and you raise him, he probably is beat. He should know that. If he doesn't overplays TPTK or overpairs, my best guess is a set, and probably KK as he wakes up even more on the river when the board is so scary.

He can also play 98 or QT the same way, since a str8 would be a nice hand, if you're not holding the flush. You could easily have just AJ or something or even two pair. But I don't think he can give you credit for a flush. He thinks you have AJ, KJ or AK.

He still don't understand why you would cap the river when he has been the agressor throughout the hand. You must have a good hand, but not better than KK that he has, and that's why he caps it...

What do you t hink about my thoughts about this hand? Are you going to reveal the hand and the outcome of it later? It would be interesting to see if we come close to identifying the hand.