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#2
04-09-2007, 07:51 PM
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Re: 2-7 Last Draw Villain Draws 2
[ QUOTE ]
If you are in position and villain draws two in the last draw. Do you draw with K7542 or Q7542 or stay pat? [/ QUOTE ] Draw, your still a small favorite in the long run. Remember that if your opponent is likely to draw 2 cards going into the final draw, he is also likely to call a river bet with something like JTxxx, or probably even K2345. 
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#3
04-10-2007, 11:19 AM
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Re: 2-7 Last Draw Villain Draws 2
Is villan competent? If so, TT's advice sounds good. If not, you might consider raising and standing pat. It's doubtful you'll get bluffed.
Either way, I'm raising 6th street whether I'm drawing or not. 7th street is probably a check-call, unless you think you can drive him off of a Jack or rough Ten.
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#4
04-10-2007, 11:42 AM
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Re: 2-7 Last Draw Villain Draws 2
Don't keep a K, this is rarely the correct play. (Certainly not with a smooth draw.)
The Q may earn you a few percentage points of pot equity over drawing one but I would tend to draw anyway. You are still a 2:1 favorite and your hand will often play better on the end if you draw. Say there are 5 bets in the pot--- the 5% equity you sacrifice by drawing is 0.25 of a bet. Your ex-showdown equity on the last round is probably around this much by drawing, since you have position. You need to earn one bet 25% of the time through value-bets and raises. With a 42-card stub (i.e., ignoring previous discards), and giving your opponent 237JJ, you can jam 7 outs and (at least) value-bet 8 more outs, which is 36% of your hands. Since your discards are pairs or paints your value-betting hands are probably a slightly higher percentage. (Also, if you keep a Q the ex-showdown equity probably works against you since you face a tough choice vs. a bet, unless you know he never bluffs.) I would keep a J, though, this moves you from a 2:1 favorite to a 3:1 favorite.
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#5
04-10-2007, 12:03 PM
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Re: 2-7 Last Draw Villain Draws 2
[ QUOTE ]
Either way, I'm raising 6th street whether I'm drawing or not. 7th street is probably a check-call, unless you think you can drive him off of a Jack or rough Ten. [/ QUOTE ] I think we are talking about two different games.
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#6
04-10-2007, 12:23 PM
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Re: 2-7 Last Draw Villain Draws 2
Keep a Queen if your draw is rough and check it out. Draw if its smooth. My value bet range against someone who draws two on the river when i draw one is queen or better.. Nice tilt factor and it tells them to give up more often which makes things easier for me.
-Against more aggresive players when im in position i like to use a little timing mis-tell (or whatever you want to call it)...Yesturday when my opponenent drew two against my wheel i paused for ahwile before patting making him think i was thinking about keeping a paint. He lead a 987 into me and than paid off a similary timed raised.
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#7
04-13-2007, 05:55 PM
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Re: 2-7 Last Draw Villain Draws 2
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Either way, I'm raising 6th street whether I'm drawing or not. 7th street is probably a check-call, unless you think you can drive him off of a Jack or rough Ten. [/ QUOTE ] I think we are talking about two different games. [/ QUOTE ] Nope, just a bad terminology use on my part- guess I should have said river instead of 7th street.... I meant after the last draw on the check-call, and I'm raising on the 2nd drawing stage no matter what I do. Sorry for the mixup.
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