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#11
12-08-2006, 10:13 AM
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Re: Deal of the century.
[ QUOTE ]
What's up for sale here are the full rights and source code to the product, not just a user license. Once purchased, it will be used to sell licenses and recoup the investment. [/ QUOTE ] Licenses are only like $17 so you've got to sell a few. The guy who has owned it has been having a ton of trouble keeping up as Myspace has stepped up its anti-spam efforts. I'd bet that's why he's selling. Myspace has been continually changing things to try to keep ahead. If you're not ready to hire some really good programmers to keep it continually updated, this thing will be useless w/in a week. 
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#12
12-08-2006, 10:34 AM
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Re: Deal of the century.
Agreed. Note this quote from his sales pitch, emphasis mine.
[ QUOTE ] My reason for selling is simple. I am a student, and unfortunately I do not have time to manage this website any longer. School must be my first priority. I also have other business ideas in mind that I plan to begin to setup/plan within the next year. Sales have dropped this month (November), but this is because CAPTCHA bypass was patched, they will bounce back up again now that CAPTCHA bypass is available again. The reason I am selling this website cheaper is because CAPTCHA bypass has become "unreliable". This current method should last about 2-4 months, guessing from the previous activity from MySpace. It is uncertain whether or not more methods exist, but there are hundreds of people who spend time looking for them. If you dont get inside information about the next one, your competitor(s) will, and you will benefit from that as much as they will. [/ QUOTE ]
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#14
12-08-2006, 11:26 AM
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Re: Deal of the century.
[ QUOTE ]
can't someone that knows what they are doing make a similar program in their pajamas for a lot cheaper than $30k-$60k? [/ QUOTE ] Probably, and there are plenty of competing adder programs out there. But Myspace has recently begun taking this stuff much more seriously and is really working to stop them so starting now it's much more difficult if you're starting from scratch than in the past I'd think.
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#15
12-08-2006, 11:35 AM
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Re: Deal of the century.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] can't someone that knows what they are doing make a similar program in their pajamas for a lot cheaper than $30k-$60k? [/ QUOTE ] Probably, and there are plenty of competing adder programs out there. But Myspace has recently begun taking this stuff much more seriously and is really working to stop them so starting now it's much more difficult if you're starting from scratch than in the past I'd think. [/ QUOTE ] ok, but basic economics says that if you can reproduce something for cheaper than you can buy it then it doesn't make sense to buy it. also, you have to wonder why revenues DROPPED in november compared to october and now he wants to sell it. maybe there are free ways to do this now.
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#16
12-08-2006, 11:55 AM
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Re: Deal of the century.
[ QUOTE ]
ok, but basic economics says that if you can reproduce something for cheaper than you can buy it then it doesn't make sense to buy it. also, you have to wonder why revenues DROPPED in november compared to october and now he wants to sell it. maybe there are free ways to do this now. [/ QUOTE ] Read the above posts that explain why revenues dropped. I'm not saying buy this thing. I'm saying don't buy it, but not for the reason you mention. If you start trying to create a similar program, you're already behind the curve and the security patches Myspace adds will keep changing while you're just trying to build the basic program.
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#17
12-08-2006, 12:46 PM
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Re: Deal of the century.
MySpace is putting in a great deal of effort to prevent mass friend building. They have to in order to keep their users happy.
CAPTCHA happens more often and MySpace keeps changing it requiring more updates to the software. Competition with friend adder software has grown dramatically. search The increase in advertising expense from PPC campaigns to retain sales volume may be significant. With the need to constantly update the software, increased competition, and the possibility of MySpace creating a permanent crippling effect to the bots, there is a lot of risk with this investment. If the future looked good, and maintaining the software, sales and customer support were easy, why would he sell it?
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#18
12-08-2006, 01:28 PM
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Re: Deal of the century.
I agree with most of you that Myspace cracking down on these things is the risk. Thats certainly why this business is selling for 4 months revenue, which is unheard of.
I really appreciate your analysis of the situation since it may save me $60k. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] All these risks are in any business. I want you to analyze why I won't be able to make back the 60k before the ship has sailed. There is a time factor here.
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#19
12-08-2006, 01:42 PM
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Re: Deal of the century.
[ QUOTE ]
All these risks are in any business. I want you to analyze why I won't be able to make back the 60k before the ship has sailed. There is a time factor here. [/ QUOTE ] Wtf are you talking about? The risks we named above are product-specific risks. I think it's spelled out pretty clearly above. You're paying 4 months revenue for a product that will likely be obsolete in weeks, unless you're a programmer that can find new workarounds as Myspace continually improves security. What further analysis do you need?
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#20
12-08-2006, 01:57 PM
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Re: Deal of the century.
Colt,
I wasn't trying to offend you. I was interested in hearing more discussion. More discussion, but centered around time. You guys mentioned two things, they are not business specific. Risk of other competitors with a free product. Risk of myspace changing their CAPTCHA system. EVERY business does face these two things... Risk of competition. Risk of changing business environment. This one is interesting because the time frame is much shorter. 4 months ago the risks for this business were the same, but the owner has made 60k since then. I am still not convinced this is a good buy or a bad buy. I don't have enough information yet. Do any of you know how often the CAPTCHA gets changed?
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