2K6m. tricky TPTK OOP. - Page 3

KRANTZ · #21 08-23-2006, 11:20 AM

im gonna sayyyy check and fold the flop, given that he just sat down an orbit ago, you really have no reads on him (and his 4-bet call alone implies either something strong or something stubborn that will at least peel the flop, especially if it contains a diamond or is a high pair). Putting you in a tricky, tricky situation on nearly every turn, including the ones that improve you.

given you got to the turn, i think it has to be a push with these stacks, mainly because you have to figure TT, JJ, AK or xx with a diamond makes up some portion of his range (not nec. a big part, but some portion), and coupled with the money in the middle, i'd just put it in.

i also agree that you should have 4-bet more preflop, but it's not a big deal at all.

Nielsio · #22 08-23-2006, 11:21 AM

checking is not an option.

JKratzer · #23 08-23-2006, 11:51 AM

preflop is kinda weird, but not terrible. i see you taking it down a lot on the flop after that action. push turn, you can't fold i don't think and worse hands/draws will check behind. also, what's a taggy screenname look like?

jkratzer

T-God · #24 08-23-2006, 01:06 PM

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He's not giving odds to hit a set

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BB is getting like 3-1 immediate and then they have ~1650 effective stacks going into the flop against what is likely a very strong hand. No PP is folding ever.

Edit- I don't really think the raise is bad, but you can't say he's not giving odds.

TheWorstPlayer · #25 08-23-2006, 01:10 PM

he's not giving odds. he has to call 200 more with 1600 behind. that's not good enough to be profitable. don't forget all the times he hits a set and ends up losing 2K. You have to AVERAGE 1600 profit to make the call profitable. No way that is the case here.

T-God · #26 08-23-2006, 01:22 PM

He has to call 158 more getting 3-1. Odds of hitting a set are 7.5-1 which means he has to make ~700$ postflop when he makes a set. And with position in this big of a pot against what is likely a very strong hand, he should be calling any PP here.

TheWorstPlayer · #27 08-23-2006, 01:26 PM

With reasonable assumptions (fold any non-set on flop, lose stack 5-10% of time hitting set) you have to make 1200-1500 total when you hit a set. I don't think it's possible with these stacks. It is obviously close and, as I said, he could have made it bigger. But I really don't think calling here with 22, say, is a winning play.

Jamougha · #28 08-23-2006, 02:03 PM

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People posting $2k max hands in the medium stakes NL forum makes me feel like a wussy [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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PPL have been posting 400NL in SSNL too. Seems there's a bit of level creep.

Big_Jim · #29 08-23-2006, 02:10 PM

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im gonna sayyyy check and fold the flop,

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I also agree with this.

As a standard, I don't think that cbetting in 4-bet pots is really wise, without a good draw/hand or a board with scary high cards. While the monotone flop is a bit scary, in and of itself, pairs just aren't gonna fold here often enough for a cbet to be +EV, by my estimate.

CopTHIS · #30 08-23-2006, 02:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With reasonable assumptions (fold any non-set on flop, lose stack 5-10% of time hitting set) you have to make 1200-1500 total when you hit a set. I don't think it's possible with these stacks. It is obviously close and, as I said, he could have made it bigger. But I really don't think calling here with 22, say, is a winning play.

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If you were villian and knew hero had aces (and hero didn't know that you knew) then I'd say you have odds on calling with any pair (and you have to think mid-pair for villian to 3-bet anyway). I've already said what I think about the PF 4-bet and there are issues beyond not-giving-odds-on-a-pair-hitting.