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#21
08-17-2006, 11:08 PM
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Re: 1Knl. small flush OOP on river.
i like your flop-turn line a lot. i think it's a lot more confusing and represents a lot more strength than leading.
i'd say his range is broken down into 3 categories: bigger flushes: KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, JT, so 5 combinations pocket pairs KK-TT: 24 combinations weakish trips: AJ, AT, A8s (possible he raises turn w AJ, but also possible he raises preflop with A2s and such so we'll say those cancel each other out. 18 combinations so we're obviously an overwhelming favorite to win here. half of the overall combinations (KK-TT) will not check if bet at, and will maybe call up to something like 350 on the river. if we crai and get called by trips, then we're only a 3-1 favorite to have the best hand. so only half his hands bet, and we lose about 1/4 of the time that we do it, so the EV of crai seems pretty crappy if we push, then let's say trips call 2/3 of the time, pocket pairs fold always, and now we'll lose about 1/3 of the time that we're called (12 effective combinations of trips, and 5 combinations of better hands) if we bet 350, then pocket pairs and trips call, which represent 90% of his overall range. if he pushes, then it costs us 350. maybe my assumptions are off but unless they're off by a lot this seems like a trivially easy 2/3-3/4 bet and fold to a push, no? 
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#22
08-17-2006, 11:15 PM
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Re: 1Knl. small flush OOP on river.
if hes a fish hell definitly raise the river with aces that didnt boat up tho
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#23
08-17-2006, 11:22 PM
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Re: 1Knl. small flush OOP on river.
[ QUOTE ]
if hes a fish hell definitly raise the river with aces that didnt boat up tho [/ QUOTE ] no he wont, but he will call 100% a push with trips.
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#24
08-17-2006, 11:44 PM
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Re: 1Knl. small flush OOP on river.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] if hes a fish hell definitly raise the river with aces that didnt boat up tho [/ QUOTE ] no he wont, but he will call 100% a push with trips. [/ QUOTE ] i'll take your word for it, but we don't know that he's a fish
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#25
08-17-2006, 11:58 PM
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Re: 1Knl. small flush OOP on river.
[ QUOTE ]
62s OOP? without very good reads or very deep stacks, please fold preflop. [/ QUOTE ] Was wondering if I was going to be the only nit questioning the play of the well respected FV. Some callers, sure. First in? Fold. As per the rest, didn't look real hard but I have a fl so I'd bet a decent amount and fold to a ridiculous amount.
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#26
08-17-2006, 11:59 PM
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Re: 1Knl. small flush OOP on river.
I think you should bet 400 and call a push
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#27
08-17-2006, 11:59 PM
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Re: 1Knl. small flush OOP on river.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] if hes a fish hell definitly raise the river with aces that didnt boat up tho [/ QUOTE ] no he wont, but he will call 100% a push with trips. [/ QUOTE ] i'll take your word for it, but we don't know that he's a fish [/ QUOTE ] everyone's a fish.
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#28
08-18-2006, 12:08 AM
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Re: 1Knl. small flush OOP on river.
[ QUOTE ]
i like your flop-turn line a lot. i think it's a lot more confusing and represents a lot more strength than leading. i'd say his range is broken down into 3 categories: bigger flushes: KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, JT, so 5 combinations pocket pairs KK-TT: 24 combinations weakish trips: AJ, AT, A8s (possible he raises turn w AJ, but also possible he raises preflop with A2s and such so we'll say those cancel each other out. 18 combinations so we're obviously an overwhelming favorite to win here. half of the overall combinations (KK-TT) will not check if bet at, and will maybe call up to something like 350 on the river. if we crai and get called by trips, then we're only a 3-1 favorite to have the best hand. so only half his hands bet, and we lose about 1/4 of the time that we do it, so the EV of crai seems pretty crappy if we push, then let's say trips call 2/3 of the time, pocket pairs fold always, and now we'll lose about 1/3 of the time that we're called (12 effective combinations of trips, and 5 combinations of better hands) if we bet 350, then pocket pairs and trips call, which represent 90% of his overall range. if he pushes, then it costs us 350. maybe my assumptions are off but unless they're off by a lot this seems like a trivially easy 2/3-3/4 bet and fold to a push, no? [/ QUOTE ] The first two sentences of that post hit the mark. If you're on 1 table, you can take some time and work it out but remember, you can't call time online like you can live. If you play more than 1 table, this degree of hand range analysis nonsense is a total waste of time. It makes for a great post and discussion, but in the heat of the battle plays close to zero role. The question is do you have the best hand and, if you do, what gets paid off? You have no where near the time to think of this sh*t when deciding that. Should you bet? Yes. Should be willing to fold? Yes.
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#29
08-18-2006, 12:15 AM
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Re: 1Knl. small flush OOP on river.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i like your flop-turn line a lot. i think it's a lot more confusing and represents a lot more strength than leading. i'd say his range is broken down into 3 categories: bigger flushes: KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, JT, so 5 combinations pocket pairs KK-TT: 24 combinations weakish trips: AJ, AT, A8s (possible he raises turn w AJ, but also possible he raises preflop with A2s and such so we'll say those cancel each other out. 18 combinations so we're obviously an overwhelming favorite to win here. half of the overall combinations (KK-TT) will not check if bet at, and will maybe call up to something like 350 on the river. if we crai and get called by trips, then we're only a 3-1 favorite to have the best hand. so only half his hands bet, and we lose about 1/4 of the time that we do it, so the EV of crai seems pretty crappy if we push, then let's say trips call 2/3 of the time, pocket pairs fold always, and now we'll lose about 1/3 of the time that we're called (12 effective combinations of trips, and 5 combinations of better hands) if we bet 350, then pocket pairs and trips call, which represent 90% of his overall range. if he pushes, then it costs us 350. maybe my assumptions are off but unless they're off by a lot this seems like a trivially easy 2/3-3/4 bet and fold to a push, no? [/ QUOTE ] The first two sentences of that post hit the mark. If you're on 1 table, you can take some time and work it out but remember, you can't call time online like you can live. If you play more than 1 table, this degree of hand range analysis nonsense is a total waste of time. It makes for a great post and discussion, but in the heat of the battle plays close to zero role. The question is do you have the best hand and, if you do, what gets paid off? You have no where near the time to think of this sh*t when deciding that. Should you bet? Yes. Should be willing to fold? Yes. [/ QUOTE ] i play 6-9 tables and am able to do this type of stuff in my head, because i do it away from the table. but you can keep thinking it's a total waste of time and i'll keep trying to improve
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#30
08-18-2006, 12:31 AM
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Re: 1Knl. small flush OOP on river.
Josh, in the time Party gives you to act, you're really able to play 6-9 tables and go through all this stuff? If you can, good for you. I'd be timed out by the first range of hands.
I'm being honest when I say I think it's a reach for the masses. They just don't give you enough time for all that. I believe when multi-tabling it's much easier and much simpler to ask "Am I ahead?" and "If so, how much will he pay off?" Maybe I'm wrong.
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