5/10 NL- Semi Deep, Too Many Outs

[AdamBragar]

5/10 NL Online, 10 Handed

I don't have much of a read on the opponent, but get the feeling he is kinda passive and not very tricky.

I have 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raise to 40 in the CO, button (2700) calls, all else fold. I cover him.

Flop: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Pot: 90ish

I bet 75, he raises to 225, I call.

Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I check, planning to checkraise big, possibly all in. Button checks behind.

River: A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I?

Do I bet here, do I just give up on the hand?
Any other comments?

[trplthrt]

I think you have to bet in the 200 to 250 range. He could have easily bluffed the flop bet with a draw or a small piece of the flop and I would think more than 65% of the time you would win it here with a bet given the action. Any two pair-ish hand would have not let the river come free, if he was tricky with a set maybe, but most likely was a bluff raise or a lone 9 and with the J or A on board would have to release. Only two hands IMO you are worried about are J9 and A9, or, in fact, if he thinks your image is loose and reads your bluff. 200 to win 540 against a passive player seems like a good spot to me.

-trplthrt

[jlocdog]

I wonder what his range of calling a preflop raise is here? Is he capable of a bluff raise here (broadway cards+,PP-99)? Your river bet will only mean AK or a set. So if he has anything he might very well look you up since there are so few possibilities of you connecting that flop. If you do decide to follow through, I think I would have to bet more than 200-250 here. This bet into a ^40 pot looks like spewing to me. I might even overbet the pot since that is what I would do if I hit a set.

On a side note I hate leading with this type hand. I know it is a standard c-bet but I really don't want to get blown off the hand and would rather take my "free card" on the flop rather than the turn. I would prefer either a c/r flop and lead heavy on the turn with your added outs or c/c flop and look to c/r turn. This way you might get a cheap or free turn card and if you get a c/r in, the pot is not so big already that it will cost you a large portion of your stack. By leading out and calling a raise you know you have to still either hit or make another play at this pot to win since your 5 high can beat precisely 32. If you decide to lead out then I probably dump to a raise here.

[Big_Jim]

I think that a nice, thick PSB represents a flopped set that missed its c/r pretty well.

[Ansky]

Bet river. Basically you aren't representing many hands that make sense, but he doesn't sound like he knows that and he will likely be scared of the ace.

[NT!]

Kinda passive and not very tricky opponents make this play when they want to show down their TPGK or smaller overpairs. It's up to you to decide if he'll fold a hand like that here.

NT

[thabadguy]

pot

[aba20]

I agree, bet.

[Kirkrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
I check, planning to checkraise big, possibly all in. Button checks behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sucks, I hate it when they do that [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I might donk bet about 350 to represent the Ace if I thought opponent was on the tight side, but giving up here is okay too, as your "story" is no longer coherent, and you get looked up pretty often.

Kirk