NL 50 FR, semi-bluffing against tight, predictacle player with BPGK

[kamel]

I had no real read but the stats, but they look like he is a kind of weak-tight player. Allthough play worked here, I'd like to here comments, because I didn't feel really confident with it.

PokerStars 50 NL Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(9 handed)</font> HandRecorder v0.9b

Stacks &amp; Stats
SB ($48.75)
UTG+1 ($43.95) (10/5/1.67/33) (60h)
UTG+2 ($26.15)
MP1 ($46.45)
MP2 ($51.90)
MP3 ($68.85)
CO ($13.35)
BU ($23.90)
Hero ($61.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG+1 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#FF0000">UTG+1 bets $1.50</font>, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises to $4.50</font>, UTG+1 calls $3.

Turn: ($10.25) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">Hero bets $6.50</font>, UTG+1 calls $6.50.

River: ($23.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks.

Final Pot: $23.25.

When played, I just thought, that this player will not slowplay any monster on that flop, so I will always have an easy fold if comes over the top and will have a chance to get him out of the pot if plays passively.

As played, I guess, I should have bet more on the turn (but played it like I already had a flush or still a set) to increase fold equity.

After he called I put him on either A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x, a pair and a flushdraw (like J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), or he was glad to make top pair, perhaps KQ or so. (Couldn't see how he should already have a flush, perhaps with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but all other sensefull 2:clubs: seemed to blocked by his tightness and the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] already out) So my plan was to fire a third barrel (near to potsize) at the river if I don't improve, because I thought, he will not stand the heat.

A usefull longball approach or just fancy play givin' a nit too much action?

[effang]

since you got there, why are you not betting the river???

[CalledDownLight]

Please to be betting $20 on the river?

[uminchu]

must bet river here

[kamel]

Which worse hands will call me on the river if I bet?
I thought, as he played, he can't have a set or strong 2pair, he might have the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] as well as the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], so I did not thought that if I get called, I'm ahead more often enough and I especially won't like to see a reraise on the river (allthough it might be a kind of an easy fold).

Of course, I could bet some small bucks (that will be called glad to pot odds given to villain with a lot of hands), but even nitty villains might see them as a kind of a blockbet and will sometimes bluff raises me or think their J-high Flush is good or whatever and I definitly don't want to get raised.

I don't want to say my thoughts are valid, but that was what I thought when I played the hand and I usually try to avoid to make big bets when I don't know what to do when I get raised or doubt I will get paid off.

How should I think about the situation to find a solid sized valuebet here?

[CalledDownLight]

So you were c/f the river? I really don't understand what you're thinking. Bet $20 and call a shove most of the time is my line. Just because he won't always call doesn't mean you shouldn't bet. He hardly ever has a hand better than yours so you have to value bet here.