NL50: Maximizing EV with KK after one player is all-in?

[chesspain]

Bodog full-table. The SB has only $17 to start the hand. I have nearly $50, and the LP has me covered. No good reads on anyone in the hand.

Preflop: BB posts $0.50. chesspain is MP with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, <font color="red">chesspain raises to $3.50</font>, 1 fold, HJ calls $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 1 fold, SB calls $3.50, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds.

Flop: ($15.50) Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [4 players]
SB checks, <font color="red">chesspain bets $15</font>, HJ calls $15, CO folds, SB calls all-in for $14.40.

Turn: (Active pot=$1.20; side pot=$58.70) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [2 players + 1 player all-in)
chesspain checks, <font color="red">HJ bets $10</font>, <font color="red">chesspain pushes all-in for $29.50</font>...

Standard?

[Sir Winalot]

IMO open shove turn is superiour to checking.

[jd2b2006]

Open shove the turn. With a pot this big, giving villain a possible free card is a crime.

[SCBielski]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO open shove turn is superiour to checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO open shove turn is superiour to checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't open-shove the turn, though....the active pot has only $1 in it. What calls this bet that chesspain beats? Maybe a heart draw, but even there villain's not getting proper odds. Probably AQ calls. Other than that, nada. Given the preflop raise that got called, we can rule out most Q's and J's as likely possibilities. Villain should know that we're not betting into this pot unimproved because it's protected and we'd stand to win nothing. I think that against an open-push villain's calling range beats ours: hands like QQ, JJ, 66 that have us drawing nearly dead, hands like QJs that have us drawing quite thin, and hands like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] that have 12 outs against us. You have to throw in a heapin' helpin' of AQ/AJ before this becomes a +EV push.

Now, if you check you stand to win CONSIDERABLY more from a CRAI. Villain bets any Q and any J in that situation, and pot-commits himself, forcing him to call a push. When you filter in those other hands, you're sitting quite pretty. Even if villain is clever enough to check behind with a draw, you can still profitably check/call a river bet up to all-in knowing that your displayed weakness will increase his betting range wide enough to make it +EV.

Face it: hero's hand is rather weak here. The pot is protected, so forcing out weaker hands doesn't help tremendously. This seems like a grit-your-teeth situation where you're going to go to the mat, but you have to make sure your opponent comes along for the ride. I like a "check/push turn, check/call river" line.

In general, I'd want the side pot to be much larger before I'd start playing aggressively with a naked overpair. If he wants to get frisky, I'll give him action, but if he checks it down that's OK by me.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
IMO open shove turn is superiour to checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't open-shove the turn, though....the active pot has only $1 in it. What calls this bet that chesspain beats? Maybe a heart draw, but even there villain's not getting proper odds. Probably AQ calls. Other than that, nada. Given the preflop raise that got called, we can rule out most Q's and J's as likely possibilities. Villain should know that we're not betting into this pot unimproved because it's protected and we'd stand to win nothing. I think that against an open-push villain's calling range beats ours: hands like QQ, JJ, 66 that have us drawing nearly dead, hands like QJs that have us drawing quite thin, and hands like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] that have 12 outs against us. You have to throw in a heapin' helpin' of AQ/AJ before this becomes a +EV push.

Now, if you check you stand to win CONSIDERABLY more from a CRAI. Villain bets any Q and any J in that situation, and pot-commits himself, forcing him to call a push. When you filter in those other hands, you're sitting quite pretty. Even if villain is clever enough to check behind with a draw, you can still profitably check/call a river bet up to all-in knowing that your displayed weakness will increase his betting range wide enough to make it +EV.

Face it: hero's hand is rather weak here. The pot is protected, so forcing out weaker hands doesn't help tremendously. This seems like a grit-your-teeth situation where you're going to go to the mat, but you have to make sure your opponent comes along for the ride. I like a "check/push turn, check/call river" line.

In general, I'd want the side pot to be much larger before I'd start playing aggressively with a naked overpair. If he wants to get frisky, I'll give him action, but if he checks it down that's OK by me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your analysis...especially because you swam against the tide to agree with my play. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

As for the rest of the hand, the HJ called my all-in. Whereas I was ahead of the short-stack's KJo, the HJ tabled AA [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]...and I failed to hit what was actually a one-outer.