2K6m. bottom set facing a big river push.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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Flawless,

Although i am sure you had your reasons, i don't think the turn clal can be justified with these stacks, too often a scare card comes that doesn't get you paid or makes you the second best hand, i really think you need to jack it up here.

As for the river, man it's so tough. I don't think folding is bad, but at the same time, if he has AQ or AT, which are as likely as anything until he pushes the river, he probably feels that the only viable hand you could have to beat him in J9, so may feel like he has the second nuts here.... Tough hand

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Gabe,

I dont like your thinking much here. I see no reason to raise this turn. Very few scare cards with this action are going to cause me to fold on the river, with typical action. In my opinion, the villain doesnt see this queen, with some weak hand or 3 barrel bluff hand, and go, wow if I overbet push here I might be able to represent a straight or a huge hand and cause my opponent to fold bottom set!

I like calling the turn for deception reasons here occasionally, and against some people who may fold second best hands to a raise, it is likely the correct decision. On the river, the overbet probably saved you money and I think you have to pitch your hand. Contrary to what TBG said, I really think a lot of those 2 pair hands are some of the most unlikely hands a villain could have here. This is so rarely a thin-ish value bet. There cant be many worse hands that play this way for value, maybe AQ or AT. Fold.

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I am shocked!
SHOCKED!
I didnt even think this decision was close...
With how underrepresented your hand, i cant believe so many are advocating a fold, and i DEF cant believe Strasser is advocating a fold!

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I can believe it, because they make some decent points, but I am calling here for sure. Contrary to Strassa's opinion, I do think you'll look at top two or Aces up a fair amount, here. I think you played it fine until the river; the only cards that kill your action/potentially scare YOU are a 7 and a 9--not too shabby. I'd call the river.

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I actually think this is almost always a straight and rarely a set or two pair.

[luckychewy]

against a seemingly unknown i can't fold this. all the points about the river being a card that is more likely to improve our hand but him showing strength are valid but against an unknown i'm calling this.

[thabadguy]

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I am shocked!
SHOCKED!
I didnt even think this decision was close...
With how underrepresented your hand, i cant believe so many are advocating a fold, and i DEF cant believe Strasser is advocating a fold!

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your style of play is throwing you off here -- just because you put in 2x pot on a bluff doesn't mean other people do it

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Top two isnt a bluff, some1 already said that the opponent might think j9 is possibly the only hand brian could have here and hence might think that AQ is the "second nuts"
and i agree with that.
The reason i said i was shocked is because Jason Strasser always talks about calling such bets when you have underrepresented your hand, and brian's hand is extremely well disguised.

[nath]

My first thought was that this is at worst QQQ. My second thought rereading description of villain is that he might be wild enough to bluff push here.
A good thinking player will overbet push a disguised monster for value, but based on your description of villain he might be bluffing. More hands with him would be nice to have first obv. If you'd seen him play that wildly for 5-6 rounds I'd definitely call.

"So, to answer your question, I don't know."

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

tbg

im struggling with this hand, to be honest. i might be able to sway this to a call. In practice, I rarely see this big bet from a worse made hand. But in theory, I think the opponent definitely should be value betting like this with worse made hands, which pushes this to a call. If he holds Aces up or something like that, there is really no reason to ever think his hand is not good on the river, so if he thinks you are capable of being a hero, or using reverse psychology against yourself, then I think a capable opponent should push a lot of pair hands.

Its a call not only because you beat hands that could b value betting, but your opponents bluff freq should also be fairly high if he is playing well, because how the f'ck can u call here very often.

So in theory, call! I still just dont see this enough from pure bluffs or worse made hands, but I think against a very good opponent I call, and against a non thinking player where you only beat a bluff (and your hand is as good as one pair of aces) I fold.

ni han
jason

[flawless_victory]

i thought for about 10 secs and folded, no show.

[highhustla]

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in theory, I think the opponent definitely should be value betting like this with worse made hands

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as a SSNL donk I can tell you you shouldn't make decisions based on what your opponent should do, esp. an unknown.

You gotta go with your instinct. Your 1st post is [censored] awesome:

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the villain doesnt see this queen, with some weak hand or 3 barrel bluff hand, and go, wow if I overbet push here I might be able to represent a straight or a huge hand and cause my opponent to fold bottom set!

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Granted, he doesn't have hero on bottom set... but he prob. doesn't have hero on anything.

[ggbman]

Flawless,

I will admit that i am incredibly biased here, since everytime i slowplay a set i get stacked or get no value. I understand your rational, but given your description, i don't think someone will value bet and ace on the river but fold to a turn raise with it if they are bad.

Now Strasser, i think the value a of a turn raise is that bad players stack off with all sorts of big aces, aces up, and A7 A9 type hands. Now if the river is a blank, the same may be true, but if it's a straigh card, bad players are more inclined to c/c than a good player who will make a thinner value bet IMO.

Now that i have had some more time to think about this though, i definilty think a fold is good here, i agree with empire and strasser, this river should jus tbe a fold, i really don't think you get shown aces up or a bluff here.

[fsuplayer]

i like the fold FV, given the player info u had at the time anyways.

[Bet]

I like the fold.

We know he'll play 9J like this and we are argueing if we do or don't see two pair hands play like this, so that discounts them all a fair amount and even if they don't get discount it means the sets also don't get discount as the same logic applies to them as the two pairs.

So it's either:

- sets and two pairs don't play like this and we see gin everytime.

- Sets and two pairs do play like this and we have a small profitable call.

In case 1 we are screwed, in case 2 we have a small +EV call. So the ratio has to be highly favoured to case 2 which i don't believe it is so.