Playing the EPL

Toopskees · #1 11-21-2007, 11:22 AM

I have found betting the English Premier League to be intriguing and (so far this season) profitable. I wanted to get other people's thoughts on this. It seems that every week, there is at least one game that is a lock or a near lock. This weekend, for example, features Chelsea v Derby. Although the MLB on a Chelsea win is currently around -350, it seems that the true likelihood of Chelsea winning is closer to 80% or 90%. I realize that all it takes is one big loss to ruin many smaller wins. My only such loser this season has been when Everton got the miracle draw at Chelsea 2 weeks ago (line was -225 if memory serves me). My book does not provide for PS...only MLB and total. I would be interested in hearing what more experienced folks have to say about playing the EPL.

rjp · #2 11-21-2007, 11:53 AM

"it seems that the true likelihood of Chelsea winning is closer to 80% or 90%"

There is a huge difference here. The half Kelly stake for an 80% bet at -350 is 5%. The half Kelly stake for a 90% bet at -350 is 27.5%.

The great thing about the Kelly criterion is that it'll make you put your money where your mouth is.

Olympic will take a 5k bet on an EPL money line, the same as an NFL spread. I know nothing about the EPL, but this leads me to believe you're not going to find very many large edges.

POlka · #3 11-21-2007, 01:31 PM

Betting large favorites in major soccer leagues on a 3 way line is not a good idea. @ -350 you need Chelsea to win ~78% just to breakeven.
How would you estimate the possibility of a draw?

Usually the value in these games longterm is on the dog if you find a book who shades the lines towards the favorite.

In the game you choose +1400 @ bet 3,65 for derby has a decent value. The most important thing to understand in sportsbetting imho is to understand that there is no right or wrong side but only right or wrong prices.

Btw if you have acess to interwetten they offer chelsea @ -333

Lori · #4 11-21-2007, 01:39 PM

I can't guarantee that it's a bad play, but I'd be pretty sure that it's not a good one.

Your reasoning is exactly the sort of reasoning that BSPs use in American football and it only serves to allow the bookmakers to rip you off.

The bad thing is that you'll get plenty of positive reinforcement as you'll win a lot of these bets and feel really unlucky when you lose one. My advice though is to keep away.

Lori

Lori · #5 11-21-2007, 01:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't guarantee that it's a bad play, but I'd be pretty sure that it's not a good one.

Your reasoning is exactly the sort of reasoning that BSPs use in American football and it only serves to allow the bookmakers to rip you off.

The bad thing is that you'll get plenty of positive reinforcement as you'll win a lot of these bets and feel really unlucky when you lose one. My advice though is to keep away.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

erm... my fixture list says they're away from home. It's now definitely a bad play.