Q9s two pairs

[Justin A]

Good 30 game. Two limpers, I limps Q9s on the button, blinds do their thing.

SB is a decent asian dude that I don't know much about other than that he knows how to play aggressively on the early streets, but gets more passive on the later streets. Definitely hand reads more than anyone else at the table. The relevant limper in this hand is completely horrible and will call along with all sorts of crap.

Flop is 982r. SB bets, both limpers call, I raise, SB 3bets, only one limper calls, I call.

Turn is Q putting up a flush draw. (7.5 bets) SB bets, limper calls, I raise, SB 3bets without hesitation, limper folds, I call hoping to spike a queen.

River is a 4. (14.5 bets) SB bets, can I fold here?

[SNOWBALL]

[ QUOTE ]
Good 30 game. Two limpers, I limps Q9s on the button, blinds do their thing.

SB is a decent asian dude that I don't know much about other than that he knows how to play aggressively on the early streets, but gets more passive on the later streets. Definitely hand reads more than anyone else at the table. The relevant limper in this hand is completely horrible and will call along with all sorts of crap.

Flop is 982r. SB bets, both limpers call, I raise, SB 3bets, only one limper calls, I call.

Turn is Q putting up a flush draw. (7.5 bets) SB bets, limper calls, I raise, SB 3bets without hesitation, limper folds, I call hoping to spike a queen.

River is a 4. (14.5 bets) SB bets, can I fold here?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you really cannot fold.
If this is a 2/3 structure, then he should be able to have a bunch of 2 pairs.
Also, if he is a good hand reader, he should know that you probably didn't make a straight on the turn (b/c you should be capping JT on the flop) so he shouldn't be afraid to be 3 betting you on 4th with any of his 2 pairs.

If this is a 1/2 structure, then folding might be right, but I'm not sure. I think the fact that he is a good hand reader makes this a calldown in general though.



98 (6 combos)

vs,

88, 99, 22 (7 combos)
JT (16 combos)

So you are a 23:6 dog
If you discount 98 by 66% then you still have odds to call

If you add in 82s and 92s into the possible hands he might play like this then the call is easier (even though these hands are extremely unlikely and almost not worth mentioning)

So yeah, call and expect to get shown a set or JT
"payoff with confidence"

[private joker]

This might be one of those spots where I call the flop and raise safe turns.

As played, I mean I can't imagine you're ever good after this turn/river action (he has JT/a set all the time), but given the pot odds it can't be too much of a mistake to make a crying call -- at the very least, you'll know if he plays JT this way or 22, and of course once in a blue moon he shows down an overplayed 98.

Post more often, Justin.

[andyfox]

I don't think I could lay down here. Would he 3-bet an OESD OOP on the flop? Would he be likely to slowplay a set on the flop? If the 9 is not of the relevant flush suit, is he savvy enough to think you raised the turn having picked up a flush and straight draw with your T-9s or J-9s?

I think he has a hand you can beat often enough to make the call.

[*TT*]

often the guys who play over-aggressively on the early streets are also the guys who slowplay sets. The only hand I fear is an aggressively played JT, there are enough combinations of 2 pair hands that would play the same way. I think you have to pay off on the river, although if your river plan was to spike a queen river or muck then your turn call is fine.

[stinkypete]

no

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
This might be one of those spots where I call the flop and raise safe turns.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about your line... its close but I think the hero has enough equity combined with position that a flop raise is the best bet.

[stinkypete]

this is one of those spots where you're confident in your read that you're beat and you've been right on with your hand reading for a long time and making lots of good folds which is great, but you're getting dangerously close to the point where you're relying too much on your hand-reading and folding ability. based on your description he can still have two pair. you're getting a bajillion to one. you have to call. and you cant get mad at yourself when he shows the set, which he will 9 out of 10 times. not close. folding too much in spots like this is a big leak.

statistically speaking, you maximize your expectation by trying to call a little too much in these spots. i might write more about this at some point. i don't think its been addressed in any published articles or books.

[Joe Tall]

Why didnt you raise preflop?

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Why didnt you raise preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

cuz limping is the new raising on the button.

i like the limp here. i would raise in the co.