Horrible turn card

[jesse8888]

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all the comments on turn check to induce river bluff are standard and make perfect sense; I would normally take this line against default villan.

but OP said villain is loose/aggro, likes to bluff and plays 80% of hands. why not bet the turn precisely to induce that bluff C/R and expected river bet?

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I agree he's a loose/aggro kind of guy, but it isn't very hard for him to have an Ace here, is it?

If we bet and he in fact check/raises with an ace, we're putting in 3 big bets instead of just 1 to find out we're beat, so we lose 2 big bets.

If he tries the check/raise with air, it's got to be the last bet he puts into the pot, as he'll probably check to us on the river and fold if we bet. So when he has air and check raises, the bet wins us 1 extra bet.

I guess the question is "If he check raises, what percentage of the time does he have an Ace and what percentage of the time does he have air"?

[earlytimes1]

in addition to asking how often he c/r with air (a decent amount given how obvious this card is to bluff c/r), we also have to ask how often he 1) follows up with a river bluff, or 2) "value bets" his 44-77, rivered pair or K-high on river? in each of these cases we gain 2 BB. as OP described him, I think the combination of these possibilities is better than 50% so we risk leaving some value on the table when we chk through turn & just call river.

[jesse8888]

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we also have to ask how often he 1) follows up with a river bluff, or 2) "value bets" his 44-77, rivered pair or K-high on river?

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These plays are not in my arsenal, so it's hard for me to say how often this is gonna happen. If the player has shown an acrid hatred of money, though, I suppose these things are possible [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]