Losing effects on winrate

Kyle · #1 10-22-2006, 09:49 PM

How much do you think being down any individual session effects your winrate?

How about 50, 100, >150 big bets?

SackUp · #2 10-22-2006, 10:58 PM

Is this a trick question??

It obviously depends on your sample size. The smaller the sample the great effect a losing streak will have on your winrate.

??

Kyle · #3 10-22-2006, 11:59 PM

Typed my post in a hurry and I should have stated my question better.

I meant how does it effect your play in terms of winrate?

SackUp · #4 10-23-2006, 12:47 AM

oh, you mean do you play worse when running bad? You either play too passively or go tilty?

I have no clue if that is your question. I try to take breaks and stay even kill at all times and stop playing if I cannot. I'm not sure how I would even measure this?

Kyle · #5 10-23-2006, 01:42 AM

I doubt it will even be possible to quantifiy just curious as to general consenus as how a players performance is effected when winning or losing.

For intance, lets say I am down 50BB this session due to being stuck my play might detoriate .2BB from my WR if i was winning or even.

stigmata · #6 10-23-2006, 04:44 AM

The change in winrate due to micro-tilt is obviously player dependant, but also you have to take into account that other players will notice you running bad. This also affects your winrate, as people naturally put more pressure on you and it is impossible to not make more mistakes under such circumstances. I would imagine this second effect could affect your winrate somewhat, even if you do not suffer from any tilt.

Kyle · #7 10-23-2006, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The change in winrate due to micro-tilt is obviously player dependant, but also you have to take into account that other players will notice you running bad. This also affects your winrate, as people naturally put more pressure on you and it is impossible to not make more mistakes under such circumstances. I would imagine this second effect could affect your winrate somewhat, even if you do not suffer from any tilt.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reading "Fooled by Randomness" which is a great book by an expirenced trader about randomness and its effects on our thought process got me thinking about tilt and its effects a lot lately. I think since tilt has a negative connotation and people are naturally over confident we tend to underestimate its effects on our play. It would be amazing if we could actually quantify the amount of money a good player loses to tilt yearly.

For instance lets assume that our hero is a 2BB winner at the limits he plays. When losing he plays .2BB/100 worse than when he is winning. Since our player only wins 50% of his sessions then he is essentially giving away 5% of his yearly earn tilting.

As I move up to 30/60+ limits players are obviously better and one of the areas I have been focusing on is tilt reduction. Although, I beleive that tilt elimination is impossible since our emotions are tied to our thoughts. But how much would our earn increase if when it came our time to run bad/micro-tilt if we could just pass on the tilting? 5% maybe 10% which at mid high limits is a lot of money. This depends on the player of course, but it would be an interesting case study nevertheless.