NL50 - folding set

[No_Match]

Villain is 20/14/2-0.7-0.3, went ot SD 23%, Att to steal 41%. What his range here - QJ, AT or just ace??? Should I call?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $50.25
UTG: $25.30
MP: $90
CO: $12.85
BTN: $82.10
SB: $49.50

Pre-Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $2.25</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $1.75, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($7) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($7) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, UTG folds, BTN calls $5

River: ($17) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $53</font>, Hero folds

Results: $41 Pot ($2.05 Rake)
BTN mucked and WON $38.95 (+$19.70 NET)

[anthb7210p]

I think you played it fine, hes got a flush/straight at least 80% of the time.

[wodka]

i would probably donkbet this flop against two players. Now that you check you miss one street of value where your hand should be best. Everybody checking behind is terrible for you.
I would definitely fold to his river raise. He could have KQ of diamonds or at least a straight. He seems too tight and passive to make that kind of a river bluff.

[Shaqalicious]

DONKBET THIS FLOP PLEEEEASE!!!!!!!!

that is a PERFECT board for your hand to get maximum value. bet 4-5 on this flop and i'm willing to bet you get raised most of the time.

[STARSCREAM.]

Deffinatly lead the flop. Also, I think folding preflop is best. Normally when a button raiser is trying to isolate a limper they don't have the highest quality hand to pay you off when you hit your set.

[kroeliewoelie]

You have to donk this flop IMO. Every 9,T,J,Q,K or A is bad, since it completes straightdraws/pairs the board. Any non-heart turn may give somebody a flushdraw, so basically there are only 7 cards in the deck that do not improve other people's likely holdings. On top of that this flop hits both your opponents' ranges quite well and they are likely to give you action.

[Nemesis69]

I have to go with leading the flop. Hoping for a raise and getting the money in.

[cashstrapped]

i like to lead the flop here, but i dont mind your check as long as you where planning on c/r a c/bet.

[hengelaar]

lol @ folding preflop.
IF you look at the att to steal ( 41 %) 22 is ahead of this range. VIllain is deepstack so you get the implied odds to call with 22.

[argy1182]

I'm tossing this preflop as well despite hengelaar's mathematics. First, you're not closing the action and last to act is an UTG caller, who may be planning to limp-raise (not all that crazy when a frequent stealer is on the button). You flop a set around 12 percent of the time and the other 88 percent you're best to c/f. No position, not closing the action, not much strength...find a better spot.
If you want to make a move on this guy, work on a good re-steal situation.