Flop straight turns tough spot.

[vancouverspecial]

Have played <50 hands with villian.
Sorry no HH...
FTP 200nl, effective stack $450

4 folds to me on button, I open to $7 with 9s7s, sb folds, bb calls.

flop ($15)
8, 10, J,
villian leads for $10, I raise to $36, villian calls.

turn ($87)
Q (second spade)

villian checks, I bet $75, villian tanks and then shoves. wtf?

The shove is for like $325 more. Am I freerolling a chop often enough to call? FWIW, if I'm beat I'd see k9 more often than AK?

All comments welcome.

[thac]

If he has K9, we have a spade redraw. A lot of the time he'll have a naked 9, but I wouldn't bet the turn if you weren't comfortable calling this shove. It's generous to think he'll call a turn bet with a set, especially such a big bet.

I'd probably be a station and call.

[markuisis]

Pretty sick spot, I think its really a toss up, his range is prob more weighed towards a naked nine (combinatorically) and based on his pf play IMO (k9 prob doesnt call oop and ak reraises). If u throw in some random hands such as fds or stupid two pairs/sets, then I think it's a call. 325 into about 560 plus u have a good redraw if ur behind, not feeling great about getting it in though.

[Hince]

I hate the turn bet size this deep, unless the guy is a total monkey.

I'm really tempted to check the turn here. Or at the very least bet less.

[vancouverspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate the turn bet size this deep, unless the guy is a total monkey.

I'm really tempted to check the turn here. Or at the very least bet less.

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet turn because a thinking player would expect me to check that turn, also I build a pot if I hit my redraw.

[vancouverspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty sick spot, I think its really a toss up, his range is prob more weighed towards a naked nine (combinatorically) and based on his pf play IMO (k9 prob doesnt call oop and ak reraises). If u throw in some random hands such as fds or stupid two pairs/sets, then I think it's a call. 325 into about 560 plus u have a good redraw if ur behind, not feeling great about getting it in though.

[/ QUOTE ]

These were pretty much my exact thoughts during the hand.

[Hince]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I hate the turn bet size this deep, unless the guy is a total monkey.

I'm really tempted to check the turn here. Or at the very least bet less.

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet turn because a thinking player would expect me to check that turn, also I build a pot if I hit my redraw.

[/ QUOTE ]

But what is a thinking player continuing with on that board with that bet?

[xwowsersx]

I think we can pretty easily out rule AK here, unless you know him to be some crazy tricky player who might CC w/AK OOP. That being said, you'd have to put him squarely on K9 for him to have the better end of the straight. K9 is definitely in a lot people's CC range from the BB, however I think the fact that he lead out into you on the flop indicates either a set (if hes smart enough to just come out with the set or to protect his 88 on a drawy board) or more likely a bare 9 and he's betting his draw. So, I'd err on the side of calling because i think AK is never showing up here and only K9 exactly his crushing him. And, again, the one real factor here is that he came out betting. I think calling here is +EV. Sorry for being so verbose. Anyone disagree?

[vancouverspecial]

set/ 2pair hoping to check down river, K high flush draw. It's a big bet but there plenty of money behind