Big bluff, reraised pot 10/20

mperich · #1 09-15-2006, 10:05 AM

Villain is a multitabling LAG, altho I hadnt played tooooo much with him up to this point. 31/18/3 over maybe 500 hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($694)
Button ($6278.42)
SB ($5049)
BB ($2503)
Hero ($6224)
MP ($4900)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $10.
Hero raises to $70, MP calls $70, CO calls $70, 1 fold, SB (poster) raises to $323, 1 fold, Hero calls $263, MP folds, CO folds.

Flop: ($826) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $600, Hero calls $600.

Turn: ($2026) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $1400, Hero raises $5291 (All-In)

-Mike

ggbman · #2 09-15-2006, 10:17 AM

I think the flop call is bad... beyond that you should have 10 outs when behind, so roughly 23% equity assuming he looks you up. There is roughly $3200 in the pot before you push, and your push makes it 2700 more to him. I'm not good at numbers, but it looks like you need him to fold a little more than 25% of the time to make this work, which seems reasonable given that he could be 2 barrling AK/AQ postflop and could definitly have JJ/QQ and that would usually be an easy fold. Hell, some weak players might even muck KK here, so i think the turn play is fine, but on the flop you have huge reverse implied odds, there is really no reason to continue past there...

whitelime · #3 09-15-2006, 10:58 AM

I think you are way too quick to put him on a standard AK/AQ/JJ+ reraising range. I think it's much more likely to be a spot where he either has trips+ or air.

BLdSWtTRs · #4 09-15-2006, 10:59 AM

I don't know if I like this.

kotkis · #5 09-15-2006, 11:16 AM

How about just calling the turn hoping to either check it down when he gives up on his bluff (too hopeful?) or hit one of our outs to bust an overpair? I think a turn call from us represents a fair amount of strength on this dryish board as we could easily be slowplaying a big pair like AA/KK.

Hattifnatt · #6 09-15-2006, 11:20 AM

folding > calling > pushing.

#7 09-15-2006, 11:27 AM

i like this better if flop was 4 5 7 and u shoved there giving you 2 chances to hit your many outs. on the turn its not as good.

ggbman · #8 09-15-2006, 11:41 AM

It's probably somewhere in the middle of our initial perceptions, sometimes a hand played like a big pair is a big pair [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

However, if you think he re-raises lightley and fires two barrels often, there your play is more acceptable. However, i am stull curious as to why you call the flop? Even given that he is a lag here, the pots you will win will generally be much smaller than the pots you lose.

kotkis · #9 09-15-2006, 11:49 AM

Some of the 10/20 LAG's are squeezing an absurd range in this spot and I can see how OP's hand could be good on the flop a fair amount of time. That being said if this were the problem then I'd much rather see a 4-bet pre-flop since it fits well with the UTG raise and deep stacks.

ggbman · #10 09-15-2006, 12:14 PM

Just because his hand is good a decent amount of the time does not mean he should continue...

Mike, the title of this post is "Big Bluff..." yet in your last post you indicated you thought villian could have air a lot. How often do you think he has non-pair hands here. Do you think he folds JJ, QQ, KK?