Basic River Value Question

[StellarWind]

Hero is Cutoff with AKs.

UTG (55/5 passive postflop) limps, Hero raises, Button (60/20 typical postflop) calls, UTG calls. Three players and 7.5 SB to the flop.

Flop is 322 2-suited none for me. I bet and both call. 5.25 BB to the turn.

Turn is off 7. I bet and only UTG calls. 7.25 BB to the river.

River is a third 2. UTG checks and Hero ???

[acehole60]

I bet this one, but his WTSD could convince me otherwise.

[mvoss]

If his WTSD isn't very low I think this is a value bet.

[NinaWilliams]

I bet it. So many aces he can have and even kings compared to pairs.

[johnnyrocket]

[ QUOTE ]
If his WTSD isn't very low I think this is a value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea this is definitely the right idea, do u have WTSD for us?

[Tryptamean]

seems like a good time to stove it up...

assuming he makes it to the river with pretty much his whole range, I removed monsters (figure even this player will not player a monster this passive), and removed anything less than KT or so...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

218 games 0.005 secs 43,600 games/sec

Board: 3s 2c 2d 2h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.037% 44.04% 00.00% 96 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 55.963% 55.96% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 99-88, 66-44, ATs-A3s, KJs+, K7s, K3s, Q7s, Q3s, J7s, J3s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, ATo-A3o, KJo+, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 87o }


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so.... looks like its close (if he pays off any ace and most kings), but probably a check behind

[Tryptamean]

if he doesnt pay off with Kx, its a really easy check

[NinaWilliams]

[ QUOTE ]
seems like a good time to stove it up...

assuming he makes it to the river with pretty much his whole range, I removed monsters (figure even this player will not player a monster this passive), and removed anything less than KT or so...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

218 games 0.005 secs 43,600 games/sec

Board: 3s 2c 2d 2h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.037% 44.04% 00.00% 96 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 55.963% 55.96% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 99-88, 66-44, ATs-A3s, KJs+, K7s, K3s, Q7s, Q3s, J7s, J3s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, ATo-A3o, KJo+, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 87o }


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so.... looks like its close (if he pays off any ace and most kings), but probably a check behind

[/ QUOTE ]

I give more A high than to pairs based on how he played this. I also think AJ and AQ are possible.

[bestwestern]

easy check. Passive postflop and low PFR - he has you beat more often than not (when he pays)

[Robin Foolz]

if he calls with a bunch of weaker ace-his and maybe something like KQ along with the hands that beat you like the A7 crap and small pps, then yeah. i think it's a thin value bet. but not knowing his range (or not being able to weigh it) and the value of a bet here, i play it safe and check.