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#31
08-14-2007, 05:49 PM
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Re: Running It Twice and Insurance
[ QUOTE ]
But are you in essence cutting your EV in half? I completely understand your mathematical example of the EV being the same for both runs, but you are giving your opponent two times to crack your hand. [/ QUOTE ] Think of it this way, if you get your money in as a 2:1 favorite, you HAVE to lose 1/3 of the time. Essentially you should only be winning 2/3 of that pot. The more you run it the closer to that expectation you'll be. The only question is do you want the spikes, aka variance, (as you win the whole pot 2/3 of the time or lose the whole pot 1/3 of the time)? In the long run you still win as much or lose as much as you're supposed to in that situation. 
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#32
08-16-2007, 03:33 AM
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Re: Running It Twice and Insurance
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yes... well explained ev_slave (with that name you should be able to ) It's the same error in logic as this riddle induces... I'll post it here and give the answer with explanation later. Have fun. You are in a quiz. There are three safes. One of them contains a million dollars. The other two are empty. You get to pick one safe, A, B or C. The quizmaster opens one of the other two safes and shows you it's empty. You get the choice: opening the safe that you first chose or switch to the other one. Should you stay with your safe, switch, or doesn't it matter? [/ QUOTE ] No responses... I'll give the answer anyways: You should switch. When you first choose a safe you have 1/3 chance of winning and 2/3 chance that it's in one of the others. If you had chosen the correct safe already the quizmaster could open one of both safes. If you had chosen an incorrect safe the quizmaster could only have opened the one empty safe that remains. This information increases the chance that the other safe has the goods. In other words: When you don't switch: 1/3 of the time you chose the correct safe in the first place and win. When you do switch: 1/3 of the time you chose the correct safe the first time and now lose. But 2/3 of the time you didn't and the only alternative safe left (the quizmuaster just took away one choice) must be the correct one. [/ QUOTE ] wtf does dis have 2 do w/ the op's question? noone answered b/c it isn't related by any means 2 the original post or any of the replies. by the way, this is the worst explanation i've ever read/heard for the monty hall problem. vos savant should kick ur ass. and u prolly suck @ poker.
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#33
08-16-2007, 01:23 PM
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Re: Running It Twice and Insurance
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Yes... well explained ev_slave (with that name you should be able to ) It's the same error in logic as this riddle induces... I'll post it here and give the answer with explanation later. Have fun. You are in a quiz. There are three safes. One of them contains a million dollars. The other two are empty. You get to pick one safe, A, B or C. The quizmaster opens one of the other two safes and shows you it's empty. You get the choice: opening the safe that you first chose or switch to the other one. Should you stay with your safe, switch, or doesn't it matter? [/ QUOTE ] No responses... I'll give the answer anyways: You should switch. When you first choose a safe you have 1/3 chance of winning and 2/3 chance that it's in one of the others. If you had chosen the correct safe already the quizmaster could open one of both safes. If you had chosen an incorrect safe the quizmaster could only have opened the one empty safe that remains. This information increases the chance that the other safe has the goods. In other words: When you don't switch: 1/3 of the time you chose the correct safe in the first place and win. When you do switch: 1/3 of the time you chose the correct safe the first time and now lose. But 2/3 of the time you didn't and the only alternative safe left (the quizmuaster just took away one choice) must be the correct one. [/ QUOTE ] wtf does dis have 2 do w/ the op's question? noone answered b/c it isn't related by any means 2 the original post or any of the replies. by the way, this is the worst explanation i've ever read/heard for the monty hall problem. vos savant should kick ur ass. and u prolly suck @ poker. [/ QUOTE ] Lol... quite an angry little fellow are you? I'm sorry that I didn't explain the problem or the solution to your standards [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. I'm also sorry that I haven't made the connection to the running it twice stuff clear enough for you so I'll do my best to explain. The relation is that the odds change only after new information has become available. Some of the replyers analysed the problem by assuming they knew the outcome of the first run. In that case more information about the cards is available and the odds are different, just like the safes where the information became available only after the safe was opened. This is what I though caused the misunderstandings.
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#35
08-19-2007, 08:49 AM
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Re: Running It Twice and Insurance
[ QUOTE ]
What if you only got 1 out? If you run it thrice it's impossible to win. [/ QUOTE ] 1 out has 1/44 equity (2.27%) with 1 to come running it once. Twice, it has 0.5 * 1/44 + 0.5 * (43/44 * 1/43 + 1/44 * 0/43) = 2.27% Same 2.27% for thrice, foursies, or however much you want to run it. You can't win the whole pot running it twice with 1 out. You can only win half the pot. You can only win 1/3 pot running it thrice with 1 out.
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#37
08-19-2007, 10:34 AM
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Re: Running It Twice and Insurance
[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you hold: 55 Villain holds: 44 Board: 4459A If you run it once you can still catch the case 5 and scoop the whole pot. But if you run it thrice you will lose no matter what. [/ QUOTE ] Again, I say: "You can't win the whole pot running it twice with 1 out. You can only win half the pot. You can only win 1/3 pot running it thrice with 1 out." Over the long run, however, your average will be 2.27% of the pot no matter if you run it once 1000 times or if you run it thrice 1000 times.
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#38
08-19-2007, 12:52 PM
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Re: Running It Twice and Insurance
"You can only win 1/3 pot running it thrice with 1 out."
Could you elaborate on this? How can you win 1/3 pot? You either win the pot, lose the pot or split the pot. If you run it thrice with 1 out you always lose the pot because in order to win the pot you need to win at least 2 of the 3 runs. This is impossible as we only got 1 out. Edit: Nevermind... I just learned that the pot will be split in thirds when running it thrice
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