Play a Hand With the Masters Results and Panel Comments

[Lloyd]

This is the final part of our first "Play a Hand With the Masters". This has been well received and, therefore, will be an ongoing part of the forum (approximately every 2 weeks). Our panel is listed below. They were given the hand piece by piece and could only base their decision on what they knew at the time. There was no discussion between panel members prior to sending me their response via PM.


Panel Introduction

<font color="#666666">Sossman: </font>Submitted the hand. One of the most respected posters on 2+2 who has had quite a bit of live tourney experience and success in events ranging up to $10,000 buy-ins.

<font color="blue">Sirio11: </font>AKA David Cossio. A very successful tournament player both live and online. He had 2 cashes in the 2004 WSOP and followed that up with 4 cashes this year including a 3rd place finish in the $2,000 PLHE event.

<font color="brown">2005: </font>Gavin Griffin. Had two cashes in the 2004 WSOP including becoming (at the time) the youngest bracelet winner in history at the age of 22 by winning the $3,000 PLHE event. He's had numerous other large cashes in both live and online tournaments.

Setup

$10,000 Buy-In Event
Day 1
Blinds 75/150 and will go up to 100/200 on the next hand
Hero has been at the table for about an hour with no unusual play. All players are unknown except for Miami John to his direct left. The CO in this hand has been playing pretty tight.

Relevant Stacks

CO 25,000
Hero 11,500
MJ 13,000
BB 9,800

Pre-Flop
Everyone folds to the CO who limps for T150. Hero is on the button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and raises to T600. MJ calls in the SB for T600, the BB folds, and the CO calls for T600.

<font color="#666666">Soss: Preflop, I was on auto pilot. I saw a LP limper, I generally don't give much respect to LP limpers, so I made my standard 3x + 1x for every limper raise. I figured that we were deep enough and my hand had good heads-up, in-position value. I wouldn't be PC'd on an Ace or Jack high flop and there was a decent chance that I could take it down preflop. I didn't really want the blinds to come along cheaply.

When MJ called, I turned off the auto pilot and started thinking about the hand as the pot was getting worthwhile.

I remember thinking that his hand range was particularly narrow because of the nature of the CO and my image. We had been talking and (I believe) that he didn't think he had reason to believe that I was a weak-tighty amateur that would let him roll over me. I believe that he had a read that I was a strong player. (However strong a read can be for playing and speaking with a guy for around an hour.)

Anyway, his call was interesting because I really felt that he had a range of like 22-TT (maybe JJ, probably not QQ/KK, maybe AA hoping the CO was 'trapping'). He could also have something like AQ, and maybe something like AJs or KQs, but probably not.

So, I knew that I would have to be careful of him if I flopped top pair. I also knew that he knew that he was giving the CO odds to call w/ a wide range. The fact that CO flat called probably meant that he had a medium strength hand that wanted to see a flop. Myself or MJ or the BB hadn't shown any tendencies to punish LP open limpers in the last hour (maybe he had a read that I didn't know about?). I put him on a wide range of hands that included smallish pairs, suited connectors, weak broadways (JT,QJ,QT,KT). It seems that other hands would have either folded, raised initially, or reraised me preflop.

I never considered limping behind at the time (partly because I was particularly aggro that day). I think that there are benefits of both raising and limping behind, and I think that the hand probably plays differently if I do. I think that the problem with limping behind is that I probably lose more when I flop top pair and am behind. I probably fold the best hand too many times, too.

Raising there preflop is as much for info as it is for value as it is a steal. If I had to do it over again, I would still raise. </font>

<font color="blue">Sirio11: It's hard to put the CO limp on a specific hand, but I think he does not have AK or AQ, which is good for me. I'd raise to T450 for two reasons: 1) I want more information about the CO hand. If he reraises me, I just fold; 2) I don't want MJ to play this hand cheaply. If he wants to play, he needs to pay.</font>

<font color="brown">2005: I put the CO on a wide range here: suited connectors, small to medium pairs, KQs, Ax suited. I think he's limping to instill action in the table. I would raise to T525.</font>

<font color="black">Flop
Pot: T1950

T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

MJ checks, CO checks, Hero checks.</font>

<font color="#666666">Soss: Getting two callers preflop and a flop that presents some draws and some potential sets, I never really considered betting. I also had some backdoor outs that I could semibluff on the turn with if checked to me again or someone probed it. I could give it up on the turn if they bet into me on a blank. Betting there and getting checkraised isn't the worst thing in the world, but I really don't mind the free card if they are willing to give it.

Looking back and reading the comments, I think that I still check behind there following the rule of not cont betting when in position multihanded.</font>

<font color="blue">Sirio11: I'd check in this spot 75% of the time and bet 25% of the time with that stack. If I bet, it would be around T1600 to be sure they know I have a big pair, no continuation bets here. So if they raise me, I'm done. If I check, most probably MJ is open betting the turn and, of course, there are different scenarios if an A, J, or [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] came on the turn. The check allows me to have more information and opens the possibility of making a move on the turn.</font>

<font color="brown">2005: I bet T1200. MJ is likely to have a medium pair, KQs, Axs, etc. The CO's range is still the same. I'd like to find out if my hand is the best here. I'm betting to get MJ to fold a better hand and to charge the CO to draw to whatever he has. If I meet any resistance, I'm done with the hand.</font>

<font color="black">Turn
Pot: T1950

Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

MJ checks, CO bets T1500. Hero raises to T4000. MJ folds. CO thinks for over a minute before calling.</font>

<font color="#666666">Soss: This is by far (for me) the most interesting part of the hand. There are so many ways to play it. When the Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] came, I knew that this was destined to be a key hand for me in the tourney. MJ checked and I knew that he was done. Whiffed small pair, definitely. There's not a chance that he doesn't bet his set or AQ there with the drawlicious board.

The bet from the CO could be so many things. It could be an underpair representing the whiffed check-raise attempt. It could be something like AT or KT who whiffed the check-raise and now is hoping that either I don't have a Queen or I put him on the flopped set and laydown a hand like KQ or AJ.

The most likely hand for him, I think, is a combo hand like a pair and a flush draw or a pair and an OESD. Obviously, I wanted to give him a chance to lay this down. I thought that pushing on the turn might look too little like the nuts or even a set and too much like a combo hand myself. I wanted to make a raise that put him in a multi-street perdiciment.

I did seriously consider flat calling on the turn, but decided against it since my hand had a lot of value when you consider the FE against all non-Q pairs (with no draw) and the value of when I win a bigger pot when I hit. I also felt that if he flat called and a blank came on the river, that there was a decent chance that I could give him a really tough river decision. Basically, there wasn't a card in the deck (except maybe pairing the 9 or T or Q) that I wouldn't bluff/value bet the river with. So, unless he sets me in on the turn with his flopped set (he really could only have 33, right?) or turned nuts (doesn't he raise preflop w/ KJ?) I'm in a good spot for him to make a bad decision. </font>

<font color="blue">Sirio11: I was afraid this was going to be the turn card . . . lol. Well, in this case, I think I'd observe my two opponents and try to read into their soul. If MJ looks uninterested and CO nervous, most probably I'd raise to T4000 here. If I can't get any read then I think I'd just call.</font>

<font color="brown">2005: This is the kind of spot where I'd really like to be able to see my opponent. If he looks weak I'm gonna move in on him. If he looks like he might have something I'm just going to call. I think you have too much hand to fold. You have at least 12 outs and as many as 21, though that's unlikely. I think the CO probably has something like QT or Q9. I'd call and fold the river unimproved.</font>

<font color="black">River
Pot: T9950

2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero has approximately T7,000 left and villain has him covered by quite a bit.

Villain checks. Hero bets T5,000 on the river. After taking almost the entire break to make his decision, Villian calls with KT.</font>

<font color="#666666">Soss: El Blanko. He took so long on the turn and nearly mucked. He definitely wasn't acting. He was a young asian kid and truly seemed confused by my turn bet. This solidified my thought that he had a combo hand like a pair and a gutshot or a pair with a jack or a pair and a club draw. I was fine with any of those hands since there weren't many cards that were going to make it any easier on him on the river. He quickly checked and looked at me almost begging me to check it down so he could show his pair. I counted down, looked at his stack and tried to convince myself that I had KJ in the hole and tossed out my single pink 5k chip.

I really think that I messed up on the river by not pushing. This was the last hand before the break and in fact there was nobody at our table after MJ folded. It was just me and him and the dealer. I took into account my stack too much instead of his stack. I wanted to leave myself w/ 10x in case he called because I suck and didn't want to go home yet. I should have seen that he had around 20k left and that there was likely a psycological difference between still having 15k vs. 13k. 13k is nearly half of his previous stack. I'm not sure the weighting of the factors of 'that bet looks like he wants me to call' vs. 'how much do i have left if i pay him off'. They likely cancel each other out most of the time.

Anyway, he nutted up and called me w/ KT and I hung around for another two hours on life support before getting all in w/ QJ vs. QQ. Yay me. </font>

<font color="blue">Sirio11: Ok, what do we know about the player? 1) He has been plaing tight; 2) He calls in the CO; 3) He called Hero's raise pre-flop; 4) He checked the flop; 5) He bet the turn; 6) He called Hero's raise on the turn; 7) He checked the river.

By 6 and 7, he does not have KJ or a set of Ts. A set of Qs is unlikely because of 2, 6, and 7. A set of 9s or 3s is also unlikely because of his deliberation to call in the turn. AA/KK is not likely because of 2 and 3. JJ is not likely because of 2 and the fact the hero has a J, but there's a chance. AT/A9 is not likely because of 1 and 6. AQ is a possibility, but 2 would make that a strange holding. 98c with soe other player could be possible, but by 1 not likely for hi. KQs, KQ, QJs, JTs are real possibilities although because of 3, probably not KQ (but probably he called with KQs, QJs, or JTs after MJ called).

So, looks like he has a pair of Qs unless he has a set of 3s and he's scared hero has a set of Ts. But the KQs/QJs is more likely. Now you need to decide if the bluff can be successful. Is he the usual tight player that wants to survive and does not commit all his chips with marginal holdings? If so, then go ahead and bet your 7k or maybe 6k. Or is he an intelligent player who is going to question why you didn't be your hand on the flop versus 2 players? (Note: since Soss's only read was he was a tight player with no mention of being intelligent, Sirio would lean toward making the bluff here).</font>

<font color="brown">2005: I think the villain has a weak T and I push.</font>

<font color="black">Panel Summary:

Pre-flop
Soss raises to T600
Sirio11 raises to T450
2005 raises to T525

Flop
Soss checks
Sirio11 checks
2005 bets T1200

Turn
Soss raises to T4000
Sirio11 raises to T4000
2005 calls T1500

River
Soss bets T5000
Sirio11 bets T7000 (with some debate)
2005 bets T7000

Forum Members Who Emulate
I kept track of everone's responses on each street for those who posted their original pre-flop response prior to the posting of the flop.

AtticusFinch took a line exactly like Sossman.
CardSharpCook followed the path of 2005.
And Sirio11 was on his own for this one, mainly because of his pre-flop raise that was a bit less than what most people said they'd make.

[Exitonly]

a lot of buildup to see pretty much the same thigns we were already talking about...

not that i was expecting anything different.

Well i like the line Soss took here (except for the 5k instead of All-in on the river)

I wish i could see how the hand would have played out had we called on the turn instead of raising.

[TomHimself]

LLyod this came out to be a great thing! I don;t really understand sirio's smallish pf raise, i think he also did this with KK after one limper and made a smallish raise

[sirio11]

Just a note in the summary Lloyd.

In the turn I give you my 2 possible plays based on the read of the player, but if I have to choose one for the summary, it would be a raise.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
Just a note in the summary Lloyd.

In the turn I give you my 2 possible plays based on the read of the player, but if I have to choose one for the summary, it would be a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
I can change it np. I chose calling since that was your default absent a read to the contrary.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just a note in the summary Lloyd.

In the turn I give you my 2 possible plays based on the read of the player, but if I have to choose one for the summary, it would be a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
I can change it np. I chose calling since that was your default absent a read to the contrary.

[/ QUOTE ]
To what amount would you raise?

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
LLyod this came out to be a great thing! I don;t really understand sirio's smallish pf raise, i think he also did this with KK after one limper and made a smallish raise

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know if Sirio feels strongly for a smallish raise but would certainly be interested in hearing his thoughts.

[mayesie]

Good Job! I'm looking forward to the next hand

[Lloyd]

A few questions:

Gavin said he'd bet the flop and Sirio said he'd bet it 25% of the time and that he wouldn't make it a "continuation-sized bet". What factors make you want to bet the flop versus checking behind since this is a flop we can improve on. And Sirio, why not a "continuataion-sized bet"? It's not a very coordinated board so if you had an overpair would you bet more than 1/2 to 2/3 the pot? Wouldn't a large bet seem like you were trying to buy the pot?

The turn is obviously a critical moment here. I can't see raising since I definitely want to see the river and don't want to be check-raised for my stack. If check-raised do you call?

On the river, does betting a smaller amount like Soss did (5,000) really make a big difference versus pushing the extra 2,000?

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
really understand sirio's smallish pf raise,

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, tell me what do you think is the difference between 450 and 600, and how this affect your future plays in the hand?