ABC debate a joke

[pvn]

Snowball's previous post on this bears repeating:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=1#Post10423379

[j555]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a good indication of Paul's progress will come at the Straw poll coming up. Iowa is an important state and we will see if he has made progress there. I think if he does > 10% then people will need to start taking his campaign seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll be somewhat surprised if he gets more than 3% as well and I don't think it's the best indicator of his campaign. He has only been here in Iowa once before the debate on Sunday. The other lower tier candidates have been doing lots of groundwork and there are a couple midwestern candidates in the field. If he does anything close to 10% it would be a huge success because he has done so little campaigning in Iowa and it would probably cause a couple candidates to drop out if they finish below him which will help to take care of the debate time allocation problem.

One thing to keep in mind that will help him is that anyone can vote in the Iowa straw poll if they're an Iowa resident of voting age. So while Iowa Republican polls that have him at 2%, a lot of his support will come from independents who aren't called for those polls. But I agree that if he does well people will start taking him seriously and the other Republicans candidates might have to rethink their Iraq war and foreign policy stances.