Awareness of a Hand's Value (long; ignore if you have a life)

[derosnec]

So, this is an awareness post, not a post about strategy (slow day at work). Nothing groundbreaking really, might even be totally wrong. It’s a macro view, if you will. As I have done before in posts, I’ll use finance to highlight what I’m trying to say.

Finance Stuff

So, some of you probably are familiar with volatility in the markets. And there is what is known as stochastic volatility, where volatility changes randomly over time (random shocks). Volatility can change an instrument’s value; hence value can change randomly (unless you're a follower of the Technical Analysis school of thought, but let's not get into all that).

Application to Poker

I begin with the obvious: the value of your hand is constantly changing and is subject to varying degrees of random shocks (I use the term “random” somewhat liberally). And the hand’s value depends on many factors.

Now, pretend that there is a market for hands, where someone can buy your hand after it has started and take over the hand (preflop, on the flop, etc). Your hand would be valued differently depending on many factors and will be valued differently at different points in time in the hand.

Example

You get dealt KhKd.

No chips in pot yet: Market price (value)? Depends on position, quality of opponents, your image, etc.

You raise utg; one caller. Market price? Again depends on factors above. What if you are 3bet? The value changes again.

Now, for the flop.

Your hand’s value is going change on the flop, which is somewhat of a random shock because of the large number of ways a flop can be dealt and because of the lack of significant information about what your opponent’s hand will be relative to the flop (though ranges help with that of course).

So, the value of your hand on the flop (before anyone has acted on the flop yet) will change from what it was preflop.

Let’s run through the flop scenarios quickly:

Out of Position With KhKd and flop is 2h7sJs

Notice how the value of the hand is different in different scenarios,

Bet/opponent has yet to act
Bet/called
Bet/raised
(I assumed we don’t check)

In Position and same flop

Check/Bet/opponent has yet to act
Check/Bet/Raise
Check/Bet/Call
Donk bet/Raise/opponent has yet to act
Donk bet/Raise/Call
Donk bet/Call
Donk bet/Raise/Shove

Now change the flop texture and go through those scenarios again. And of course the quality of opponent is different in different hands too. And so is our image. So, a lot of stuff to going on.

Conclusion

So, the second you get dealt KK, don't think "I have KK." There is no such thing as KK (i.e., if a hand is simply a value, then it won't have identical value to the last time it was dealt to you).

The point of all this is rambling is that this awareness helps a player see what's going on and therefore not be as mentally susceptible to the swings and changes in opponent behavior (e.g., "man i just lost with KK again! I'm cursed!" or "Man, I got minraised on a 4 flush board and I have KK no spade! Ugh!").

[BoerfSt]

I like it.

[bozzer]

thanks dero, short and very clear. should be helpful.

for some reason i assumed you were a full time grinder - obviously not: what do you do?

[bozzer]

BUMP because this deserves way more love.

[Wilpro]

I am putting villain on AA, where is fold option?

[ama0330]

Good post. Many people dont understand that this:

[ QUOTE ]
So, the second you get dealt KK, don't think "I have KK." There is no such thing as KK

[/ QUOTE ]

is crucial.

[ama0330]

also lol at your location [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[derosnec]

yeah what inspired the post was when i got dealt KK at two tables at same time.

if i recall correctly:

Table 1: i was utg and the rest of the table were TAGs (bad table selection).

Table 2: i was OTB at a table full of fish and two of them had limped in.

i was sitting there thinking, "i have the same hand on two tables, yet the value of the hand at each table is not the same, even before i put in a single chip in the pot."

[ama0330]

2p2er: fold
noob: but i have KK!
2p2er: no you dont
noob: what?
2p2er: you are way behind his range, just fold
noob: but i have KK!


enough said