10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?

[KingGordy]

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bet > check

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maybe if we had total air, but not when we have almost no FE but do u have a gutshot and 5 outs

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Almost no FE? History dictates that Villain views OP as an aggressive bluffy 3 bettor. As shown when OP 4bet bluff/fold. Because of that, villain is going to call flop cbets really light in rr pots. So anyways...

Effective stacks 2234$

Villain folds
EV=$1390

Pokerstove if Villain calls and Hero is behind
Note:This range is assuming villain doesn't call light


Board: 5h 9d Qs 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.636% 18.64% 00.00% 369 0.00 { 7c6c }
Hand 1: 81.364% 81.36% 00.00% 1611 0.00 { QQ+, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo, KQo }



So we have a 18% equity once villain calls


EV of us pushing and being called
EV=(.18)(4468)+(.82)(-1554)
EV=804.24-1274.28
EV=-470.04

Neutral EV when shoving where Fold equity=x

EV=0
0=-1390x+(1-x)(-470.04)
0=-1390x-470.04+470.04x
0=1860.04-470.04
470.04=1860.04x
x=25%

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You also have to calculate the EV of checking as well since checking has an EV >0. I'm too lazy to do this though.

[Barrin6]

What I was trying saying was that villain will probably peel [censored] hands on flop and c/f turns.

Calculating the EV of checking? Hmm.. I'll be back...

[Barrin6]

I don't know how to do it. Someone please point out where I went wrong.


Ev of checking and villain shoving river 100%


EV=(.18)(4468)
EV=804$

Now we need to find out how often does he has to shove river for us to make it neutral EV where x= the % of time he shoves river



0=(804$)(x)+(1-x)(1390)
0=804x+1390-1390x
586x=1390
x=237%

So we need him to shove river 247% of the time

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Yea I know I did something wrong

[Jinx]

screw him shove

[EmpireMaker2]

This is much better than checking

[blankoblanco]

my line here is to shove, run into a set, then river gutshot

[pokerchap]

No one seemed to answer the question of what he folds here... TT/JJ?

[muxplust]

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my line here is to shove, run into a set, then river gutshot

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[jessica1994]

how about betting like 600 and rest on the river. it's like the reverse installment plan.

[Gimli_]

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how about betting like 600 and rest on the river. it's like the reverse installment plan.

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He is not folding river.