50NL: BSB 99 call down

[Schiester]

[ QUOTE ]
JJ/AQ+ I'm 50/50. The JJ/AK range fwiw doesn't make sense to me so I didn't put it in.

traz: yeah thats the other line I'd take.

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When I get 3bet pf my immediate thoughts are JJ+/AK. I then think about whether villan is likely to be any looser than this which I'd assume you were thinking here seeing the history with you stealing blinds.

If you are going to include AQ in his range pf then you have to also include JJ/TT IMO... Keeping in mind this is the first time he has done this.

...And its fair to assume this range stands up on the flop as he's all but obliged to bet this board following pf action...

You just have to ask yourself if AQ/AK is shoving this turn. If I were making this play from villans seat then this is where I give up with these hands and shove TT+ agaist someone who I think is fooling.

Maybe you got lucky this time but in the long term I think your spewing out all the hard earned chips you'd been making by stealing blinds.

[Check_The_Nuts]

Schiester,

If he's shoving AK unimproved he's shoving AQ too, and if he's reraising JJ he's likely reraised AQ as well. So thats why I don't believe in an AK/JJ+ range unless ur trying to filter for the times he decides not to bluff with AQ or AK.
I don't think he'd giveup with exactly AQ but shove with exactly AK as a bluff. He either decides whether he should bluff here or not and then will or won't do it.

He's not shoving TT on the turn unless he's insane. JJ is hard to push there too, and I really think QQ checks that turn some %age of the time.

[Bad Beat Expert]

To me, the 3-bet by a TAG in the BB seems like a pocket pair, AK, or AQ. The turn bet mostly eliminates AK and AQ, as well as 22, 33, and 44. That means you're ahead of only 77 and 88 while behind 55, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA plus the unlikely 66 (and tied with the 99). That means you need roughly 7-to-2 pot odds to feel good about the all-in on the turn (but you only had 5-to-2 to call).

Also, it's not a good situation for set mining with 99 because the 3-bet is more than 10% of your stack. However, I don't mind the call of the 3-bet so much if you plan to bet a checked flop while folding to any further action from villain.

[Profish2285]

As played I would call the flop and probably fold the turn. He is a tag, not a maniac. He has to be pretty ballsy/stupid to double barrel this turn with AK. Does he have reason to think you can fold an overpair here?