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#21
10-16-2007, 02:42 PM
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Re: 4-way CB with 56s wheeeee
agreed, but I think I'd still rather shove than call merely cuz the odds suck against his range(if he's bluffing at all, or has 8T and moves us off our hand or something like that). I think fold is prolly best though.
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#22
10-16-2007, 02:48 PM
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Re: 4-way CB with 56s wheeeee
[ QUOTE ]
i think its a good spot to c/r with air b/c it looks strong. we've got an open ended straight draw, once we get here like this i think calling is pretty bad bc we have to fold on a blank turn. we're currently getting 3:1 on our money and we have some fold equity. yay variance. [/ QUOTE ] You may think it's a good spot to c/r bluff but you and villain don't think alike.
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#23
10-16-2007, 02:57 PM
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Re: 4-way CB with 56s wheeeee
[ QUOTE ]
agreed, but I think I'd still rather shove than call merely cuz the odds suck against his range(if he's bluffing at all, or has 8T and moves us off our hand or something like that). I think fold is prolly best though. [/ QUOTE ] carrot wins! I love how the biggest lagtard and the biggest nit in SSNL are starting to agree with each other quite often <3
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#24
10-16-2007, 02:59 PM
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Re: 4-way CB with 56s wheeeee
[ QUOTE ]
agreed, but I think I'd still rather shove than call merely cuz the odds suck against his range(if he's bluffing at all, or has 8T and moves us off our hand or something like that). I think fold is prolly best though. [/ QUOTE ] odds suck yes, but your FE is close to none here. So fold yea it probably best
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#25
10-16-2007, 03:04 PM
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Re: 4-way CB with 56s wheeeee
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You have to stack him like every time for this to be profitable. [/ QUOTE ] I think my rule-of-thumb maths must be wrong. I thought that we are nearly getting direct odds and that we don't need much in implied to make that up. [/ QUOTE ] We're getting 5.2:1 implied, and we're only 4.9:1 to hit our draw on the next card. [/ QUOTE ] If you assume he has a set, we may have better odds!
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#27
10-16-2007, 03:11 PM
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Re: 4-way CB with 56s wheeeee
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah why are you guys not all jumping up and down and saying shove. I shove there on the flop all the time. Sometimes they fold, sometimes you get there. whee [/ QUOTE ] because its really bad in a vacuum and nothing mentioned in the OP gives us any reason to think it wouldnt be really bad here edit: agree w/ carrot that its better than calling, which doesnt make it any less bad though.
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#28
10-16-2007, 03:13 PM
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Re: 4-way CB with 56s wheeeee
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You have to stack him like every time for this to be profitable. [/ QUOTE ] I think my rule-of-thumb maths must be wrong. I thought that we are nearly getting direct odds and that we don't need much in implied to make that up. [/ QUOTE ] We're getting 5.2:1 implied, and we're only 4.9:1 to hit our draw on the next card. [/ QUOTE ] If you assume he has a set, we may have better odds! [/ QUOTE ] If by 'better', you mean 'worse', then ok.
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#30
10-16-2007, 03:21 PM
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Re: 4-way CB with 56s wheeeee
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You have to stack him like every time for this to be profitable. [/ QUOTE ] I think my rule-of-thumb maths must be wrong. I thought that we are nearly getting direct odds and that we don't need much in implied to make that up. [/ QUOTE ] We're getting 5.2:1 implied, and we're only 4.9:1 to hit our draw on the next card. [/ QUOTE ] If you assume he has a set, we may have better odds! [/ QUOTE ] EV vs set: 0.17*0.78*282 - 0.83*54 - 0.17*0.22*182 = -$14 EV vs a hand drawing dead if we hit (still stacking off 100%): 0.17*282 - 0.83*54 = +$3 So if villain has a set 18% of the time (or more) we can't ever call profitable. Even if he always stacks off when we hit. Unless we're counting on getting a free turn sometimes which seems unlikely. Turning a fd will probably boost the ev of a call a bit. Not too much though. Cliff notes: Calling is bad.
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