Really Tough Week (Survivor Decision) - Need Suggestions

[dmk]

Teams I've taken so far:

sea
den
ne
dal
ten
bal


what's your line this week?

i think i'm going to have to choose between WAS or PIT?

i pretty much really don't like any other games.

[pirateboy]

Washington is a good one, New Orleans (as nuts as it sounds) is okay.

[psuasskicker]

I went with Clev cause Miami really is that bad.

- C -

[dmk]

i'll wait and see what the lines are on the WAS and PIT games i guess...

CIN is another possibility maybe

[Jazzy3113]

Can you imagine a survivor league that takes into account spreads, lol?

I would suggest you take a look at New Orleans or the Washington. Try to avoid Pitt as they are a road favorite.

[playersare]

[ QUOTE ]
CIN is another possibility maybe

[/ QUOTE ]
bengals could actually be the best possibility. CIN better strength of schedule YTD, first two home games beat ravens and lost to NE by similar margin as dallas.

vs. NYJ - defense wins championships but offense wins games

[UMTerp]

NE, DAL, and SEA are the three that are closest to slam dunks, but most people have used these already (I'm in a pretty huge pool, and 13.5% have DAL left, 24.2% have NE, and 52.3% have SEA.)

There are four other games on the board that look like possibilities to me, and I think you're nuts if you take any of the others:

WAS vs. ARI
CIN vs. NTJ
NYG vs. SF
NO vs. ATL

**NOTE** My analysis is based on a large pool, where you're going to have to go very deep (15+ weeks) into the season to win. If there's <10 people left in your pool, what I say may not apply.

In these larger leagues, "survive and advance" isn't always the best tactic, since eventually you're going to run out of premium teams before the pool gets whittled down enough to where you'll have a good chance to win. So you have to look ahead a bit.

Taking each of the four teams I mentioned above, here are the other spots in the season that look usable right now (these can always change too... the NFL is funny like that):

WASHINGTON: 7 vs. ARI, 13 vs. BUF
NEW YORK GIANTS: 7 vs. SF, 12 vs. MIN(?)
CINCINNATI: 7 vs. NYJ, 11 vs. ARI, 14 vs. STL, 16 vs. CLE(?)
NEW ORLEANS: 7 vs. ATL, 10 vs. STL, 15 vs. ARI

Looking at the above, I'd personally throw out Cincinnati and New Orleans as Week 7 plays. They both appear to have plenty of usable spots down the road, and why not wait until these teams are in better form to use them? (Yes, the Saints looked good last night, but that's just one week.)

Washington and the Giants are both playing well right now, and their spots throughout the rest of the season are limited. They're also both playing west coast teams flying across the country for 1:00 games. I'll be on one of them (and I haven't made up my mind as to which yet.) Slight lean to the Redskins at the moment because of the Cardinals' QB situation, and the fact that the Niners have 14 days to prepare vs. the Giants' 6.

** As another aside, often if I'm torn between two teams, I'll pick the one that I think will have less support throughout the rest of the pool. It's always better to be "against the norm" in these things, all other aspects being equal. That doesn't really apply this week though, as I'd imagine the picks will be all over the board.

Any other thoughts on WAS/NYG for Week 7?

[UMTerp]

P.S. Taking Pittsburgh in Denver is asking for trouble IMO. Even though the Broncos haven't played the greatest at home so far, that's still a brutal place to play.

[Jazzy3113]

Terp the regular abusers/jerks might tee off on you here. I made a similar post about strategically saving some better teams for down and got ripped for my "short term" thinking.

Where do you do these large pools? I am looking at which sites have the easiest software as I am gonna set one up for my office next season.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
Terp the regular abusers/jerks might tee off on you here. I made a similar post about strategically saving some better teams for down and got ripped for my "short term" thinking.

Where do you do these large pools? I am looking at which sites have the easiest software as I am gonna set one up for my office next season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, whatever. I added that note that said that the analysis was really only applicable to a "large" pool. I got into one through a co-worker 3 or 4 years ago, and it seems to grow every year. There's 467 (439 if ATL wins tonight) left of ~2400, and you wouldn't have a chance if you just used some "system" like picking the biggest favorite or biggest home favorite every week. You're simply going to be aligned with too many people:

Look at a simple case where you are one of 800 players in a pool.

You know Team A is 95% to win, and 750 people are picking them.
You know Team B is 80% to win, and 49 people are picking them.

Your equity is MUCH higher if you align yourself with Team B than Team A. (And it's even higher if you pick Team B's opponent.)

There probably is some merit to just picking the biggest favorite (or something along those lines) in a <50 player pool though.

No idea about where to get in a "big" survivor pool - just ask around I guess.