NFL Week 6 player props thread

[silentbob]

I don't like anything available on VIP/BetGameDay, but a few of the "fantasy scoring" props on Bodog are incredibly soft IMO. Even though the juice is higher, I think there is some value especially given that the lines don't seem to account for the PPR scoring system.

The three that I'm betting:

Reggie Bush -2 vs. Shaun Alexander at -130 for 2 units. Alexander will probably out-rush Bush by about 20 to 30 yards. But Alexander is barely involved in the Seattle passing game, whereas Bush has been averaging 6 catches for 30 yards. Their chances of scoring a TD are about the same. I think on average, Bush racks up 8 more fantasy points. The Saints are decent against the run but horrible against the pass. Obviously, this becomes tighter if Alexander score more TDs than Bush.

Larry Fitzgerald -1 vs. Steve Smith at -110 for 1 unit. Smith is obviously a beast, but I don't think the line accounts for the disparity in their QBs. Warner is playing great and the Panthers will be starting Carr or Testaverde. Also, Boldin is out so Fitzgerald will be targeted all game. All bets are off if Smith breaks a long reception, but the Cardinals have been decent against the pass this year.

Adrian Peterson -4 vs. Cedric Benson at -120 for 1 unit. I don't think Benson will get that many more touches than Peterson. It goes without saying that Peterson will do more with his touches. Minnesota's run defense is one of the NFL's best. Benson doesn't catch many passes. Peterson usually get a few. My one concern is that Chicago's defense will be better at home, but frankly the talent disparity between these two RBs is too great. On average, Peterson outgains Benson by 20 yards on the ground and by 20 to 40 through the air (in addition to several more receptions).

More to come once Bodog puts up their real props.

YTD: 12-13, -2.93 units

[siccjay]

I like these and I'm gonna piggyback.

What about

Braylon Edwards -2 vs Chris Chambers? Seems to me this is a pretty good one as well.

[insanity31]

I'm on that already fwiw, looks like the best one. Backup qb for Miami, and Edwards' numbers are much better and more consistent than Chambers.

[silentbob]

[ QUOTE ]
Braylon Edwards -2 vs Chris Chambers? Seems to me this is a pretty good one as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
I was eyeing this one too. There is definitely an edge. Barely not enough for me to bet. I don't think Lemon is that much worse than Green. My bigger concern is that both pass defenses are horrible. Also, while Edwards is the better WR, he and Winslow split targets whereas Chambers is the undisputed focus of Miami's passing game. Edwards is still reasonably likely to cover though.

[MrFeelNothin]

Wow, Bush should be like -10 in a PPR.


I also like Pennington +5.5(-105).

[silentbob]

[ QUOTE ]
I also like Pennington +5.5(-105)

[/ QUOTE ]
Ordinarily, 5.5 is a ton to lay for any QB matchup (as demonstrated by Peyton -7.5 vs. Garcia last week) but media reports suggest that Pennington is on a short leash tomorrow and could be pulled for Clemens. I would stay away from this one.

Bodog has put up some props. I like two thus far:

Kellen Winslow under 80.5 receiving yards at -120 for 1 unit. He's done very well so far this season, and the Dolphins have been bad against the pass, but they shut down TEs very well. The Dolphins have also been horrible against the run, so Cleveland may not need to pass as much.

Dennis Northcutt under 70.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit. I haven't done well with lines that made me think "WTF?" this year, but this one is truly puzzling. Before this season, Northcutt had surpassed this figure 11 times in 100 games since 2000. And it's not like he's been that productive this season, although he is targeted more than anyone else on the Jaguars. So this is hardly a LOCKZ!1! but I still think the line should be 15 to 20 yards lower.

[mogwai316]

Carson Palmer total passing yards - under 250.5 (-110)

KC pass defense is #5 in the league at 174.4 ypg. Opposing QBs were Schaub, Grossman, Holcomb, Rivers, Garrard; all of them had < 250 yards. Of course, none of those guys are in Palmer's league.

Last year Palmer had > 250 yards in 8/16 games and this year in 2/4 games.

I think there's value on the Under here; I'd put the line at closer to 225-230.

[Teh1337zor]

KCs corners are slow

[silentbob]

Bodog put up a bunch more lines this morning, and the only one I really liked was Derrick Mason under 80.5 receiving yards at -115 if McNair was out (Boller doesn't target him nearly as much). But reports indicated that McNair was active, so I decided to pass. Although it looks like Boller is starting after all, and the line has moved down to 75.5/-140. Oh well.

The one additional bet I made along with the five above:

Tony Romo under 285.5 passing yards at -110 for 1 unit. The Patriots are a dominant defense this year. They've held every opponent under 7 yards per pass attempt. Romo will produce today, but I don't think the Cowboys will see the ball enough for him to air it out 40 times. Also, as discussed in the game thread, this game won't be quite the shootout that the BSPs have suggested. Both teams may try to control the clock.

Best of luck to all.

[Nonfiction]

Braylon Edwards with 2 tds, chambers with none so far, ship ship