Overplay flop, awkward turn

[acehole60]

I like the flop cap and lead safe turn. With the bad turn card I just c/c down. This is what feels right, but if Pokerstove is saying different I might be wrong...

[MacGuyV]

Pokerstove pokerschmove...there's no way we're not ahead of an unknown's flop 3balling range.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd have capped the flop too but stove says it is bad
stove also says just c/c down a safe turn

[/ QUOTE ]

yourface,
can you explain your methodology for using stove to decide that c/c the river (assuming 23r for BB streets) is the best strategy? It really seems counterintuitive if his flop 3-betting range is narrow enough that we have 40-50% equity (i.e. he'll have lots of chk/behind pairs and not many K-hi bluffs).

If c/c'ing the river is bad then it might turn out to be better to sacrifice a tiny bit of ev on the flop to recover it on the river. I'm thinking he might not pay off a river donk because its just not consistent with a busted draw but he probably will pay off if you keep your range wide enough to include some "12+ out" draws.

I haven't run the numbers so this may be way off.

[yourface]

I think that we're sacrificing more than a tiny bit of EV on the flop. straights are a lot of combinations and we need to consider that they're going to charge us an extra bet on the turn which we will have to call

doing a rough stove without weightings (I used weighting when I did it yesterday, but it takes a while)

flop:
Hand 0: 46.497% { QcJd }
Hand 1: 53.503% { TT+, AQs+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, AQo+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }

brick turn:
Hand 0: 51.148% { QcJd }
Hand 1: 48.852% { TT+, AQs+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, AQo+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }

brick river:
Hand 0: 61.386% { QcJd }
Hand 1: 38.614% { TT+, AQs+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, AQo+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }

but he's likely not going to bet or call less than TP, which makes the river (taking out KT KJ)
Hand 0: 51.852% { QcJd }
Hand 1: 48.148% { TT+, AQs+, KQs, K9s, QTs+, JTs, AQo+, KQo, K9o, QTo+, JTo }

so it's damn close on all streets

I think it is better to not cap the flop because it keeps our hand range wider, which invites villain to value bet with worse hands, and prevents us from putting in multiple bets on the big streets UI which will only happen when we're behind

so I think we get the same value from the hands we beat and lose less to the hands that beat us by calling the flop 3bet and c/c down

[yourface]

btw the hands I would weight are TJo TQo K9o JQo. I would 3bet those hands if SB steals a wide range but I don't think that everyone does

[vmacosta]

"but he's likely not going to bet or call less than TP"

dude, yourface, if I cap the flop and bet down I promise you people are gonna be calling me on the river with KJ and prob KT-type hands. I may be a bit spazzier than most but still.

However the threat of getting raised on the turn a lot and having to call down as a pretty big dog makes me tend to not wanna argue with you.

[yourface]

seems unlikely to me if villain is a reasonable hand reader but maybe you're right. will you ever have a hand that loses to KJ or KT if you cap the flop and the turn and river brick off? just curious, I know that I wouldn't

if we assume that you will get paid off by those hands it def makes it closer.

using the range I gave earlier the EV we gain from value betting those hands on the river is
0.185*1=0.185BB, where 0.185 is the fraction of his range that is KJ and KT

and the EV we lose by calling down a turn raise vs a straight is
0.183*[ 0.821*-2 + 0.179*3] = -0.202BB, where 0.183 is the fraction of his range that is K9 AK, and 0.179 is our equity vs those hands on the turn.
I am assuming we get a c/r in if we improve. if we don't it would be -0.235BB

I think KT and KJ should be discounted because of the flop play though. they don't always get 3bet


so if my calcs are right we lose more vs his straights than we gain vs his KJ KT.

[yourface]

if we can fold the river UI and get a c/r in if we improve it is only -0.052BB, which means the EV we can from value betting his worse pairs more than makes up for it

[vmacosta]

yourface,
good stuff I think I'm convinced now, thanks.

[yourface]

I figure if I do enough stove sims it'll sink in eventually and I will become a bot like gehrig