silentbob's Week 1 player props thread

[silentbob]

Hi everyone. Pinnacle's U.S. demise in January pretty much killed any interest I had in sports betting, but I've got the itch again with the return of football season. As those of you who followed me last season know, I tend to pick a handful of props per week and bet the under. Last year I did pretty well, winning nearly two-thirds of the time. Obviously, that could have easily been variance but we'll find out soon enough.

I have one bet for tonight's game.

Joseph Addai under 104.5 rushing yards at -110 for 1 unit (BetGameDay/VIP). The line is worse on Bodog (under 100.5 yards at -120), not sure I would've bet that one. I can see a three-digit line for LT2 or LJ, but Addai is wayyyyyy too unproven to get that kind of respect. He topped 100 yards only once last season, though in fairness D. Rhodes took away some carries. The Saints certainly aren't a killer run defense, but the Colts lost Tarik Glenn. Enough question marks that I think there is value here.

More to come on Sunday.

[dankhank]

fantasy experts/players widely regard addai as the no. 4 or no. 5 running back this season. imo these guys do usually know what they're talking about when it comes to personnel.

[brendanb438]

Got to love Addai being shaken up on the first play of the game for this under bet.

[silentbob]

Heh, when he got shaken up I initially thought "it would suck to win a prop bet this way" -- oh well. Thanks to Drew Brees for playing like crap and giving the Colts so much possession.

Anyway, I have a few additional picks.

Matt Schaub under 19.5 pass completions at -110 for 1 unit (Bodog). Both run defenses in this game aren't good. Neither offense is particularly established. This game will likely be a ball-control grind. Something like 12-10. Without a second proven receiver, I think the Chiefs will get a healthy dose of Ahman Green.

Trent Green under 210.5 passing yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). WTF? He surpassed 185 passing yards in one out of eight games last year. KC's receiving corps was weak, but Miami's isn't any better and they don't have anyone nearly as good as Tony Gonzalez. Washington upgraded their secondary big-time. Almost tempted to do this one for 2 units but this is Week 1 and it's very easy to misread props early in the season.

Plaxico Burress no TDs scored vs. Dallas tonight at -110 for 1 unit (BetGameDay/VIP). There is no correlation between TDs scored for a player from year to year, and I expect regression anyway. In other for "Yes" to be a good bet, you would need to assume that the Giants will score multiple TDs and that they won't be via Brandon Jacobs goal-line carries. Plaxico is a good player, no doubt. I simply think that issuing a line based on TD totals from previous seasons is misplaced.

(BTW, there is also a "Will Chester Taylor score a TD" prop on Bodog that's -145 for the no. Puzzling that it's being offered because he's splitting with Peterson. But I passed given that the line has likely been pounded to a point where it has little value.)

Good luck to all.

This week: 0-1, -1 unit

[insanity31]

I like the picks, good luck this year...

I hit the under on Portis for 2.5 units, I think that is the best bet out there this week. Tough Miami D, Portis is hurt and will be splitting carries. I think he'll need to break a big run to go over 73.5.

[siccjay]

I've got

Vince Young Under 15 1/2 completions. Now that I think about it, they will probably be behind and throw more, but he still isn't the most efficient passer.

MJD over 65 1/2 yards.

Farve under 260 passing yards.

[siccjay]

and Vince Young is 4/4 in the first 5 mins. hahahaha

[insanity31]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the picks, good luck this year...

I hit the under on Portis for 2.5 units, I think that is the best bet out there this week. Tough Miami D, Portis is hurt and will be splitting carries. I think he'll need to break a big run to go over 73.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

yay overtime... it never fails

[TonyZ]

New York Giants and Dallas.

Ill take Dallas -4.5. PM if want to book.

[siccjay]

[ QUOTE ]
and Vince Young is 4/4 in the first 5 mins. hahahaha

[/ QUOTE ]

He had 6 more in the rest of the game! Ship it!