Straight vs Shove on [censored] river card

[futuredoc85]

Villain is unknown, except that i have played w/ him before for like 10 hands and he had a $48 stack.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $232.85
BB: $196.00
UTG: $197.05
MP: $160.90
CO: $139.45
Hero (BTN): $229.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $2.00, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10.00</font>, SB calls $9.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($24) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $14.00</font>, SB calls $14.00

Turn: ($52) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $40.00</font>, SB calls $40.00

River: ($132) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets all-in for $168.85</font>

i have $165 left at the river. Im trying to think of what he can have here that doesnt either split or scoop, and is someone who plays w/ a $48 stack sick enough to bluff here when i look pretty strong.

[Imrahil]

This looks like an easy fold to me.

[cfb1739]

I definitely bet more on turn, probably $50. River really [censored] sucks, but I think you have to fold unless you think he's capable of bluffing here.

[Poker_is_Hard]

Sick sick River Card....

This is a fold. If he is bluffing, good for him. I think you can be pretty confident that in the long term against this type of player a fold in this spot is +EV.

[futuredoc85]

ok i agree that this is usualyl an easy fold, but i did have some thoughts about this particular spot. Given ive seen him playing short, is he really going to over-pot for value after c/c, c/c? Dont most donks bet smaller for value or even c/r?

[terp]

my instinct is to fold but i think he shows up with Jx (that had a pair earlier) often enough that his range may make this a call. no pokerstove here though...

timing on river shoves in these spots is fairly telling, also

[Poker_is_Hard]

[ QUOTE ]
ok i agree that this is usualyl an easy fold, but i did have some thoughts about this particular spot. Given ive seen him playing short, is he really going to over-pot for value after c/c, c/c? Dont most donks bet smaller for value or even c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this thinking is flawed. "Donks" as a general stereotype will also shove when they hit there hand. OMG I have a flush!!! I'm all in?

Donks do crazy crazy stuff, he could be bluffing in this spot but I think a higher % of the time he/she is not bluffing.

If this player is the time to bluff shove on the river, this is something you should be able to pickup on relatively quickly, hit him/her up with a note, and snap call next time.

[yad]

did he do that little "OMG I'm a donk who just hit my flush" pause before betting? If so fold.

If not you can call. Though it's still marginal because you're often splitting anyway, so usually you're calling 165 to win like 65.