100NL: Big River Bluff of almost 100BB

[Check_The_Nuts]

Villian is a regular and we have a lot of history. He's 24/12/2. I've played quite a bit with him at both 50NL and 100NL.

Here's one relevant hand that he'd definitely remember:
Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($100)
Button ($112.05)
SB ($211.85)
BB ($252.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $12.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $9.

Flop: ($26) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $21.5</font>, Hero calls $21.50.

Turn: ($69) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($69) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $66 (All-In)</font>, SB calls $66.

Final Pot: $201

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has Js Jh (two pair, jacks and nines).
Hero has As Qd (two pair, queens and nines).
Outcome: Hero wins $201. </font>


FWIW I don't repop him lightly very often, if ever. Mostly because he only has a 12% PFR so its kind of stupid to. So I think he puts me on a fairly tight range on the flop. How light do you think he'll look me up on the river?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($93.45)
MP ($259.05)
CO ($84.75)
Button ($172.35)
Hero ($136.25)
BB ($33)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $4.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP folds, Button calls $12.

Flop: ($35) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $25</font>, Button calls $25.

Turn: ($85) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($85) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $94.75 (All-In)</font>

[Poker_is_Hard]

If he is a solid player as you stated, I think you get alot to fold here.

Based on he's action prior to river, I don't think he has KK or AA. I think everything else folds outside of a set.

[Fousekis]

You are both deep, he could be calling pre-flop with a wider range than usual.

His call on the flop is a bit weird, I am not sure what to make of it. I am not sure if a push on the river is the right move. I think I'd rather make it look like a value bet @ 3/4 pot.

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
You are both deep, he could be calling pre-flop with a wider range than usual.

His call on the flop is a bit weird, I am not sure what to make of it. I am not sure if a push on the river is the right move. I think I'd rather make it look like a value bet @ 3/4 pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would never ever make that bet as a valuebet and villian should realize this from the above hand.

[Poker_is_Hard]

[ QUOTE ]
You are both deep, he could be calling pre-flop with a wider range than usual.

His call on the flop is a bit weird, I am not sure what to make of it. I am not sure if a push on the river is the right move. I think I'd rather make it look like a value bet @ 3/4 pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you were really value betting, 3/4 the pot makes no sense, if he is going to call that he is going to call a shove.

Say you were value betting a set of Jacks here, what hand calls 3/4 the pot, but folds to a shove?

[Fousekis]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is a solid player as you stated, I think you get alot to fold here.

Based on he's action prior to river, I don't think he has KK or AA. I think everything else folds outside of a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well exactly. He most likely doesn't have AA/KK, but JJ, TT, 22, 33, 55 got there and I don't see him calling the flop bet with 77, 88, 99. You can probably get QQ to fold and maybe 44, but what else folds here that called flop?

[DawnToDusk]

Im confused. Why not?

[Poker_is_Hard]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he is a solid player as you stated, I think you get alot to fold here.

Based on he's action prior to river, I don't think he has KK or AA. I think everything else folds outside of a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well exactly. He most likely doesn't have AA/KK, but JJ, TT, 22, 33, 55 got there and I don't see him calling the flop bet with 77, 88, 99. You can probably get QQ to fold and maybe 44, but what else folds here that called flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

66-99, QQ. maybe even a big Ace??

Why do you not expect 66-99 to call that flop bet?

[Check_The_Nuts]

you guys don't hand read very well. Damn.

My flop bet is basically AK/JJ+ MAYBE AQ but I highly doubt I'd ever bet the flop with AQ. If I have AA/KK here and I'm making a thin valuebet its better to shove, because say I shove KK hoping he calls with AJ/QQ. Well this is a very thin shove and he's probably going to push if he has AA+ so you can quickly see I lose the $40 or whatever when I'm definitely behind but he gets to save that when I'm ahead if I bet 3/4 pot.

[Casper05]

This would be much better on the turn than the river