Predict ARod's season HR & RBI Totals

[tdarko]

Boris,

Actually I have never said what kind of "baseball thinker" I am. I can't stand Joe Morgan but I also have been in spring training and seen what the organizations think are important. Your argument about Top ten in OPS means little to me, catchers in the big leagues are marginal at best hitters plus he is a guy that draws a lot of walks plus hits a lot of doubles. Meh. They paid 7 million b/c he is one of the best catchers in the league are you really thinking it was b/c of his OPS? lol. If so, Piazza would be catching and they would just get rid of his 7 million b/c of course its only offense baby!!

I get so tired of one way thinkers, actually not tired--bored is the right word. People that read a book and think they have a clue and just regurgitate crap from chapter so and so or whatever post you think you have read before. FWIW, I am not saying I am right about everything but I am probably middle of the road when it comes to sabermetrics and the "Joe Morgan" school of thought, whatever that actually means--he is more of just an idiot that spouts of nonsense and gives good baseball minds a bad name is all he is. Most normal people understand that baseball is a numbers game but it also has other aspects to it as well and Joe Morgan doesn't get that.

[Triumph36]

tdarko,

you recall that 1981 was the strike year, correct? those 22 HRs project to like 30-35 in a full season. I do agree that the disappearance of 330-375-400 cookie cutter stadiums means speed has less value, and I agree we will certainly not see the speed of the early 80s again. Still, all it takes is one player to re-revolutionize the game.

[tdarko]

Triumph,

Good call, forgot about that. Even still HR leaders during those early years were in the low to mid 30's like you said, we aren't going to see that anytime soon unless something changes.

You are right that it does take just one guy to re-revolutionize the game and maybe we will see a Ricky times two to counter the small parks and power of the game.

[Bremen]

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You are right that it does take just one guy to re-revolutionize the game and maybe we will see a Ricky times two to counter the small parks and power of the game.

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Or one owner. Lets face it winning is everything. A team built to play small ball in a large park will crush teams that live via the longball.

That said I think the smaller stadiums will last quite awhile not because of higher HR totals, but because it provides a better experience for the fans. Better experience = more ticket sales = happy owner.

[Thremp]

Bremen,

WTF? No.

[Karak567]

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A team built to play small ball in a large park will crush teams that live via the longball.

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rofl.

[VarlosZ]

Article from BP (Joe Sheehan) a couple of days ago on the possibility of ARod getting to 200 RBIs -- link (subscription only).

Some excerpts:

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In baseball, as in the stock market, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. A number of players each year are “on pace for” various achievements and records, only to fall off well before the chase gets serious. . .


. . . This is genuinely different, though. Batting fourth for the Yankees, Alex Rodriguez is in position to drive in more runs than anyone ever has before in part because he’s going to get more opportunities than any player in the game. Last year, Rodriguez led MLB with 534 runners on base when he came to the plate, and in 2005 he had 516, which ranked him second to teammate Hideki Matsui. So far this year, he’s batted with 72 runners on, or four per game, and he's on pace to have well over 600 runners on base for him. . .


This is what makes Rodriguez’s start so tantalizing. It’s not at all unrealistic to think that can continue; right now, the three Yankees ahead of him in the lineup are basically meeting their PECOTA-projected OBPs in the aggregate. While the team’s #8 and #9 slots may be a bit less likely to appear on base in front of Rodriguez than they were a year ago, the effect that has on his numbers should be small. Also, with Bobby Abreu’s home run power down from his peak, Rodriguez is less likely to find the bases cleared by a longball than he was last year, when he often batted behind Jason Giambi's 37-homer power. . .


. . . To have a realistic shot at 200 RBI, Rodriguez probably has to drive himself in 50 or more times on home runs, which seems within his reach. He’d have to bat with at least 550 runners on base, and preferably closer to 600. The record since 1957 is 573, set by Derek Bell in 1996. Nine players have batted with at least 550 runners on in a season. If Damon, Jeter and Abreu all sustain their current OBPs, and Abreu continues to be a 15-homer man rather than a 30-homer man, it’s not completely unrealistic to suggest that Rodriguez could set the record here. It would also help if Jason Giambi had a big enough year behind Rodriguez to make intentionally walking the latter an obviously poor choice. . .


. . . Remember, we’re talking about a record-setting performance here; it’s unlikely by definition. Alex Rodriguez, however, is in as good a position as any player has ever been to make a run at Hack Wilson’s RBI record.

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[TheNoodleMan]

Bump for A-Rod dropping to one RBI per game so far this season, 39 through 39.

[Scary_Tiger]

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Bump for A-Rod dropping to one RBI per game so far this season, 39 through 39.

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So much for all the record breaking eh?

[TheNoodleMan]

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If you're taking action on A-Rod having more than 99 RBI though 81 games then I'll take you up for $1k.

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ok, but not for 1k. try 50 bucks.

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Deal, someone reputable please jump in and offer to hold the money please.

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99 RBIs is a wash, btw. It is over/under, not just betting against my over.

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thats fine.

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Bump.

A-Rod has 80 RBI through 81 games.

I'll PM you a screen name to ship to.