observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board

[creedofhubris]

$5/10 NL. $1000 stacks.

8 people in a limped pot. Hero has 33 in the BB and checks. Hero is known as a TAG who likes to trap on occasion and who is not a bluffer.

Flop:

J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Very solid SB, who has logged a lot of hands with hero and who is a big winner overall in this game, bets $40.

Hero calls; SB is capable of making big laydowns and a raise might give things away.

Solid TAG makes it $120 from MP+1.

An unknown in CO makes it $350.

Folded to the SB, who calls the $350.

Hero's action?

[JMP300z]

[ QUOTE ]
$5/10 NL. $1000 stacks.

8 people in a limped pot. Hero has 33 in the BB and checks. Hero is known as a TAG who likes to trap on occasion and who is not a bluffer.

Flop:

J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Very solid SB, who has logged a lot of hands with hero and who is a big winner overall in this game, bets $40.

Hero calls; SB is capable of making big laydowns and a raise might give things away.

Solid TAG makes it $120 from MP+1.

An unknown in CO makes it $350.

Folded to the SB, who calls the $350.

Hero's action?

[/ QUOTE ]

ALl in [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-JP

[El Diablo]

creed,

Get pissed off that he is about to get stacked with set under set.

[PartyGirlUK]

I don't play much NL and certainly not this high, but this seems like a time to get off bottom set. The point being:

look at it from SB's P.O.V - he has led into 7 people, then called a raise on a really dry board when he still has you to worry about. What would he play this way? Would it be normal to play the flop this way with 64? SB would fold any 1 pair hands to the raise here, right? He would fold some 2 pair combos also?

Even if SB somehow doesnt have us beat

i) He will likely have outs

ii) CO could well have us beat

iii) CO could have outs.

[Requin]

I can't imagine a better chance than this for getting away from bottom set. 8 limpers, unraised pot PF, 3 people showing serious action after hero has already called. I mean, if SB is a solid winning player capable of making big laydowns then what is he calling with here.

[youngin20]

Yeah, set over set seems likely....but...who the hell raises this dry of a board with middle set? I think TAG was either going for limp-rr or play a big pot on the flop with AA/KK maybe. Ok, i cant even convince myself. its set over set. i still push.

[AZK]

I was expecting a speech that began with: "In No Limit Texas Hold'em...."

WTF.

[ZeeJustin]

WTF can they all have? Someone has to have a set, right? I fold.

[rotanimod]

I think SB's hand range after the initial bet and cold-call does not include any one-pair hands. I don't think it even includes the worse two pairs, but I'll include them anyway. A draw is very unlikely IMO, I don't think 64 or 42 leads here into 7 people. So: JJ, 55, J5, J3, 53.

MP1's hand range is more wide, as he's only just raised a weak bet (albeit still into a wide field of players). I'll give him QJ, KJ, AJ, 64s, 53s, JJ, 55.

CO is scary. A big reraise after a bet and a raise in an 8way limped pot. In all seriousness, what hands do this. This is not a semibluff unless villain is pretty crazy. I know it's an "unknown" but I get the feeling someone who would semibluff with 64 here would become known very quickly. I'll give him 53s, JJ, 55.

Pokerstoving...

3,307,880 games 1.172 secs 2,822,423 games/sec

Board: Jd 5c 3h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 08.8130 % 08.81% 00.00% { 33 }
Hand 2: 16.6046 % 16.60% 00.01% { JJ, 55, J5s, J3s, 53s, J5o, J3o, 53o }
Hand 3: 10.3633 % 10.36% 00.00% { JJ, 55, AJs, KJs, QJs, 64s, 53s, AJo, KJo, QJo }
Hand 4: 64.2191 % 64.22% 00.00% { JJ, 55, 53s }

Only 9% equity. If you give CO J5s and J3s, which is actually fairly reasonable given his position and all the limpers, your equity improves to 22%. If you pushed and got called in each spot, you would be a little better than break even with all the money in the pot.

However, if you do shove, SOMEONE is likely now folding. Probably only one of them. That chance makes you -EV! Plus my hand range for SB seems pretty optimistic. So...fold.

The crux of this problem is how often CO can be semibluffing here. I think with most even OK players, the answer is very near never. However, if you throw in 64s to his hand range, even keeping J5 and J3 out....

9,897,400 games 3.484 secs 2,840,815 games/sec

Board: Jd 5c 3h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.5445 % 28.54% 00.00% { 33 }
Hand 2: 21.6521 % 21.60% 00.06% { JJ, 55, J5s, J3s, 53s, J5o, J3o, 53o }
Hand 3: 08.5228 % 07.63% 00.89% { JJ, 55, AJs, KJs, QJs, 64s, 53s, AJo, KJo, QJo }
Hand 4: 41.2805 % 40.44% 00.84% { JJ, 55, 64s, 53s }

BAM! Your equity is now 28%.

Errors, let me know. This post is too long.

[Prevaricator]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF can they all have? Someone has to have a set, right? I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]