silentbob's Week 16 player props thread

[silentbob]

Back to betting unders only this week.

Matt Jones under 3 pass receptions at -120 for 1 unit. Faded Jones successfully two weeks ago, though that was yardage-based. That said, Jones has caught more than three passes only once in eight games with Garrard as QB. The Jaguars will likely pound the ball against a banged-up Patriots interior. New England's pass defense is pretty good anyway.

Marvin Harrison under 98.5 receiving yards at -120 for 1 unit. Heavy wind and possible showers in Houston. Peyton Manning is much less productive throughout his career in inclement weather. Harrison's per game average is 10 yards less in windy conditions. The Colts don't have that much to play for, and are coming off short rest. For the same reasons why one might take the Texans +9, I think the Colts will do as much as they need to win, and nothing more.

Alex Smith under 195.5 passing yards at -120 for 1 unit. The Cardinals are actually passable against the run, but Frank Gore is the second-best RB in football right now. As I mentioned recently, the 49ers pass only when they're forced to do so (i.e., losing by a ton). Arizona poses little threat to blow them out. Smith has only gone over 200 yards once in the past two months, and that was for 201 yards. The only reason why I'm not betting 2 units is because Arizona's pass defense is pretty freaking horrible.

Tatum Bell under 19 rushing attempts at -120 for 2 units. He's splitting carries with Mike Bell at best. Cincinnati is decent against the run, and could own the ball for most of the game against an overrated defense. If the Bengals jump ahead, which is certainly possible, the Broncos may be forced to abandon the running game early.

One other possible play that I haven't made yet is J.P. Losman under 17.5 completions, which is largely weather-based. Heavy winds are likely in Buffalo, plus the game is gonna be low-scoring anyway. I also considered taking Roy Williams over 5 receptions because the Bears could care less what happens, but Detroit is in such disarray that I have no faith in Kitna or their playcalling.

Good luck to all.

YTD: 29-15-1, +10.92 units

[Spellmen]

Can't find Tatum Bell currently, but I like the pick. I was late on the others but I got on Alex Smith. I'm a 49ers fan, but lines on him seem to be really soft. I faded him a few weeks ago against the Pack, they had the O/U on pass attempts at 28.5 when he had only thrown for more than that 3 times, all of which were pretty early in the season. Despite their ok rush D, I think Nolan has realized after the 3 loss streak that his bread and butter is Gore.

I also like Deion Branch U52.5 receiving yards. Hackett has become Hasslebacks #1 target with SJax out

[silentbob]

Tough break on Branch, ultimate garbage time bad beat there.

One big fat meh this week. Jones scored a late TD with the game out of hand to turn a push into a loss. The Colts were playing from behind and passed enough for Marvin to go over 100 yards. I lucked out on Alex Smith, he had over 100 yards at halftime and the 49ers were way behind, but he somehow didn't get the job done passing in the second half. Bodog took down the Tatum Bell prop pretty quickly, and it was clear why -- Mike Bell took over the primary rushing duties after the first quarter.

This week: 2-2, +0.50 units
YTD: 31-17-1, +11.42 units

[Spellmen]

I don't mind Branch that much, only 1 unit there and I went with Rivers U18.5 comp for 3.5 units. I knew it was my day when he started 0-9

I'd jump on a Tatum offer right away if they do one again this week, dude is done. I'm not even sure why Shanahan is trying to stick with him right now. He has started Tatum the past few weeks, but by halftime or earlier has switched to Mike