silentbob's Week 14 player props thread

[silentbob]

Nothing up on Bodog yet, so I have one play thus far:

Marc Bulger under 23.5 pass completions at -110 for 1 unit (BetGameDay). Not sure what to make of this line. The most number of completions that Da Bears have given up in a game this year is 24, and it's only happened once. The Rams pass protection has gone downhill with the loss of Pace. They're also horrible against the run, and I figure that Lovie will be just as conservative on offense as last week, if not more. In other words, the clock will keep moving. The main reason why I'm not betting 2 units is that Chicago has a few defensive players injured.

YTD: 25-11-1, +11.47 units

[silentbob]

Stop the presses! I play an over this week. Yes, the available props are pretty uninspiring.

Carnell Williams over 16.5 rushing attempts at -125 for 1 unit. The Bucs have had serious trouble establishing the run this year, mostly because opposing teams have taken the lead so early. I don't think the Falcons will do that this week. They're poor against the run and fairly banged up on defense. Gruden has little confidence in Gradkowski these days. The most compelling stat in my mind is that in 9 out of the last 10 Falcons games, the opposing #1 RB has had 19 or more rushing attempts. Let's see how this crazy over business works.

Carson Palmer under 255.5 passing yards at -125 for 1 unit. Was torn between this and Ocho Cinco under 6.5 pass receptions. Couldn't fade one of my favorite players again (plus Houshmandzadeh is a little banged up), so Palmer is the pick. If the Bengals blow out the Raiders in the first half, Palmer stops passing. If they don't, Palmer will pass, but Oakland's monster defense hasn't shown any weakness in a long time. They give up under 150 yards per game. As long as Palmer doesn't complete a handful of bombs, I feel pretty good about this play. And when the Raiders get beat in the air, they tend to take pass interference penalties rather than concede a catch.

Matt Jones under 53.5 receiving yards at -125 for 1 unit. Jones is nominally the #1 WR in Jacksonville. In reality, aside from last week, Garrard has spread the wealth in the passing game since taking the starting QB job. Jones is famine more often than feast, and unless the Jaguars find themselves in a garbage-time situation, they aren't getting pass-happy against the Colts. I think we'll see a lot of Fred Taylor on the ground instead.

Good luck to all.

ETA: Bodog put up lines for the 4:00 games and I found one more play:

Antonio Bryant under 55.5 receiving yards at -120 for 1 unit. After two 100-yard games to begin the season, Bryant has gone over 55 yards only twice. Both of those games were blowout losses (SD and NO). The lesson learned IMO is that the 49ers don't pass unless they need to. Frank Gore is a beast, and the Packers can't stop anyone on the ground. Sounds like there's value here.

[LLXC]

For more props, you might want to try other books.

[CieloAzor]

I like the Carnell and Palmer picks, but the Palmer line fell to under 245.5 -135, so I passed on that. Bryant line changed also, so I'm following you on Carnell and Matt Jones. Good luck.

[silentbob]

Cadillac hit 17 carries halfway through the 3rd quarter. Carson Palmer kept passing even though the Bengals were never in danger of losing. Oakland defense didn't show up today. Matt Jones and Antonio Bryant both had only one catch, although their games went much differently than I expected.

This week: 3-1, +1.43 units
YTD: 28-12-1, +12.90 units

[silentbob]

I blame Devin Hester! His kickoff returns were indirectly responsible for Bulger's passing performance on MNF. It seemed like the Rams had the ball for most of the game, because Da Bears were scoring so quickly. Their defense was also playing somewhat subpar, and that one drive with 10 Bulger completions in the early 4th quarter was a killer.

This week: 3-2, +0.43 units
YTD: 28-13-1, +11.90 units

[thing85]

Good instinct though, to bet 1 unit instead of 2.