silentbob's NBA chase thread, 12/06

[silentbob]

Original thread

Pending/future road trips this month

indiana - 11/26: TOR, POR, GS, SEA, DEN, LAL
orlando - 11/27: UTA, SEA, POR, LAC, SAC, IND
milwaukee - 11/28: LAL, PHO, GS, UTA
miami - 12/2: MEM, LAC, SAC, DEN
atlanta - 12/3: POR, SEA, DEN, LAL, SAC
washington - 12/17: LAL, DEN, SAC, PHO
toronto - 12/19: PHO, LAC, POR, SEA
milwaukee - 12/26: SA, MEM, PHO
philadelphia - 12/26: GS, SAC, POR, LAL, DEN, UTA, MIN
boston - 12/26: DEN, LAC, GS, SEA, POR
atlanta - 12/29: HOU, SA, TOR
new york - 12/29: PHO, LAC, SAC, POR, SEA

November started out well, but I hit a road bump this week. Lots of money in play tonight.

18.3 units on Phoenix at -520
4.7 units on Portland at +167
10.24 units on Seattle at -155

[silentbob]

Two out of three ain't bad, although I was hoping most for Orlando to lose.

Memphis -135 tonight, which I bet this morning.

[MikeyObviously]

could anyone please link to the NHL thread i read about in the original nba chase thread? I couldn't find it thanks.

[silentbob]

Enter "chase" in the search engine and you'll probably find it there.

Crunch time for Orlando to lose. 16.69 units on the Clippers tonight.

Portland made a nice comeback against Miami in the second half but couldn't pull it out.

[phifediggy]

that's a lot of units

[silentbob]

That's what a chase is about, after all. High risk, low reward. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm guessing that at least some of the Orlando players got sloshed at Los Angeles bars and/or nightclubs last night! Much like the Sacramento players did the night before the Dallas game. At least this makes up somewhat for Tennessee's 60-yard FG killing my two football teasers this afternoon.

For some reason, I forgot to bet against the Hawks today. They won, so I'll look to fade when they play Seattle. Only other pending road trip right now involves the Heat.

YTD, games: 11-10
YTD, road trips: 11-0, +9.65 units (includes Memphis loss to Miami)

[MyTurn2Raise]

nice so far....please avoid the whammy

anyway, watching Utah get pwned by Kobe and the Lakers the other night is making me think that 4 games in 5 days ending on the road might also be lucrative. Have any thought on this?

[silentbob]

Yes, the whammy in an NBA chase is far more damaging than in hockey. Which is why I need to be much more conservative in my plays. Hopefully the wheat and chaff in the Eastern Conference will separate soon and I can pass on certain road trips with more confidence. The recent Bill Simmons column on the horrific state of the East comforts me somewhat about playing this system.

As for the "4 games in 5 days" factor, I'm sure there is an effect. Whether the line already accounts for this, on the other hand, is beyond me. Betting the NBA is confounding enough as it is.

[silentbob]

Tonight:

L.A. Clippers -270 vs. Miami
Seattle -220 vs. Atlanta

Hopefully they'll win and I can take two weeks off from the system.

[silentbob]

I was worried when the Seattle line plummeted to -140 because of Ray Allen's absence, but things turned out fine. The Clippers are quickly becoming my favorite team. Their home record is awesome.

YTD, games: 13-10
YTD, road trips: 13-0, +13 units

Back for more on the 17th.