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#1
11-28-2006, 11:44 PM
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silentbob\'s Week 13 player props thread
Really hoping for a turnaround this week. One for Thursday night's game:
No INT for Chris McAlister at -400 for 1 unit (BetGameDay). Carson Palmer throws less than one pick per game and even if he does, it's more likely to be someone else in Baltimore's secondary or even a LB. McAlister has an INT in about 16 percent of his career games. Combine that with Palmer's INT rate and there is some (though not huge) value at -400. YTD: 21-11-1, +7.33 units 
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#4
12-03-2006, 12:27 PM
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Re: silentbob\'s Week 13 player props thread
Three more bets I like this week:
Fred Taylor under 78.5 rushing yards at -130 for 2 units. The perennial fantasy football tease has had a decent year but is splitting carries with Jones-Drew. Miami has a strong rush defense. The Jaguars may be playing from behind and passing more. Rex Grossman under 233.5 passing yards at -120 for 1 unit. Lovie Smith is losing some faith in the passing game, he kept running against the Patriots even though the Bears were behind for most of the game. The forecast in Chicago calls for sub-freezing temperatures and 15 to 25 mph winds. The Vikings are much stronger against the run, but this doesn't sound like passing weather to me. And if the Bears jump ahead, which is quite possible, they will go ultra-conservative on offense. Drew Brees under 24.5 pass completions at -130 for 1 unit. Stupid Bodog changed the juice on me from -120. There has been a fairly strong correlation between his passing attempts and yards and the opponent. Against weaker teams, the Saints don't need to pass as much. The 49ers will try to grind the clock with a heavy dose of Frank Gore. They also can't stop the run, which may mean we'll see more Deuce/Bush than in previous weeks. Good luck to all.
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#6
12-03-2006, 12:59 PM
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Re: silentbob\'s Week 13 player props thread
Yeah i went for Tiki over 131.5 yards (rush + recieving) (+110) and also horn under 4.5 catches (-125). Both for 1 unit. Tiki has gone over this total in 6 out of ten games, excluding the game against the hawks where they went down 21-0 early. One of these games was against the cowboys where he produced a total of 146yds. At the price offered i feel this bet is +ev. The horn slection wasnt quite as well researched although he is injured and is a game time decision and i think NO runs the ball a lot more against SF.
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#7
12-03-2006, 05:36 PM
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Re: silentbob\'s Week 13 player props thread
Very nice call on Horn.
So...wow. I didn't think Grossman would fall short by almost 200 yards. Part of me was thinking about doubling up but oh well. Brees had 12 completions at halftime but stopping passing in the 4th quarter after the Saints went up by two TDs. F. Taylor has 12 yards and the Jaguars are losing after the first quarter, so I'm feeling okay about that one right now. This week: 3-0, +2.6 units
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#8
12-03-2006, 08:41 PM
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Re: silentbob\'s Week 13 player props thread
nice picks, almost a horrible loss on taylor, he actually passed the yardage by a little but he had a personal foul facemask at the end of the run.... wheh
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#10
12-04-2006, 01:14 AM
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Re: silentbob\'s Week 13 player props thread
Heh, really? Glad I went out at 5:00 and didn't follow the rest of the game. Just goes to show how clueless I am about which props deserve the multiple-unit bets.
This week: 4-0, +4.14 units YTD: 25-11-1, +11.47 units
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