silentbob's NBA modified "chase" system

[silentbob]

Ouch. Damn you, Jamal Crawford! Denver blows a 12-point lead at home with 8 minutes to go.

Games like this are why using a tiny unit size is essential in an NBA chase. The moneylines are so steep compared to the NHL, which leads me to believe that a chase system in basketball is much tougher to maintain. Thankfully, as I stated in the OP, I'm not gunning for big money under this system.

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What about the Knicks ATS? they are +10. Do you think they are that bad vs a 0-2 denver team with a long layoff (4 days off)?

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The relative unpredictability of the NBA is also why I'm not confident handicapping sides against the spread.

I'll be betting on the Rockets ML tomorrow to win 6.35 units. It's gonna be expensive, but I think Yao and company should probably come through.

[silentbob]

I hate this system already. Laid -625 to win 6.35 units. That's a lot bigger chunk of my BR than I expected. Makes me want to slice the unit size even more than I have already.

YTD, games: 1-1
YTD, road trips: 1-0, +1 unit

[silentbob]

2.75 units on Sacramento at -275 vs. Toronto. Bet this last night, ML is at -300 now.

[silentbob]

Yay, glad to see that basketball didn't kick my ass like the NFL did today. At least yesterday went very well, so the weekend was a success overall.

No games for the system tomorrow.

YTD, games: 2-1
YTD, road trips: 2-0, +2 units

[silentbob]

Tuesday's games:

3 units on New Orleans at -300
2.2 units on Dallas at -220

[silentbob]

Both lines moved against me, which was somewhat worrisome, but it all worked out.

YTD, games: 4-1
YTD, road trips: 4-0, +4 units

No bet on Seattle vs. Philadelphia for tomorrow night yet. For some reason, the line's not up on Pinnacle. I'm also trying to figure out whether to keep fading Da Bulls for one more unit, considering that their chances of sweeping HOU, SA, and LAL are quite unlikely.

[CalvinTy]

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Both lines moved against me, which was somewhat worrisome, but it all worked out.

YTD, games: 4-1
YTD, road trips: 4-0, +4 units

No bet on Seattle vs. Philadelphia for tomorrow night yet. For some reason, the line's not up on Pinnacle. I'm also trying to figure out whether to keep fading Da Bulls for one more unit, considering that their chances of sweeping HOU, SA, and LAL are quite unlikely.

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I'm on the theRX forum myself, and I did see your thread here for the last week or so, but I didn't really have an opinion of using the ML in basketball.

(I think it was because of how different it is in hockey with MM's system where goals are not easy to get, i.e. 1-5 goals per game by a team on average; whereas, for ML in basketball, I notice the points vs ML are still "similar" to football style. What I mean is if -3 in basketball is similar to football as the ML goes like -250's, right? Same idea with -7/-8 being like -500's? But what scares me about BB than football is how easy the points come... it takes a good few minutes in football to get 3 pts for FG, but a 30 second swing of two straight 3-pointers in BB by either team really changes the landscape for that "run" but impacting the overall game picture anyway. What do you see so far on this, silentbob?)

Anyway, I meant to reply in agreement about fading the Bulls for 1 more unit as I also don't see them winning *ALL* 3 games against HOU,SA,LAL but I'd be most curious about the ML prices now that Bulls faded last night at end losing to Mavs by 12.

* CalvinTy

[silentbob]

Yeah, so I already bet Houston tonight to win 1 unit. Can't access my Pinnacle account from work, so not sure what what odds were exactly.

I agree that a chase system is rather impractical in the NBA compared to NHL given the steep ML odds. It will still succeed in the long run, I think, but given that I've dropped the unit size twice already, my ultimate winnings (if any) won't be terribly large.

Anyway, I bet the Sonics and lost last night. Will play the Suns against Philly tomorrow.

[silentbob]

Houston won, barely.

Betting 8.19 units tonight on Phoenix at -300.

Whether I bet against the Heat tomorrow night will depend on the status of SHAQ!

[silentbob]

I was worried when Nash was out but Phoenix won handily.

Betting 1.26 units on Atlanta vs. Miami tonight. Line seems a bit fishy, but I don't think Miami can win at NO and SA with a one-man team.

YTD, games: 6-2
YTD, road trips: 6-0, +6 units