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#11
05-08-2006, 01:33 AM
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Re: Deep stacked $200NL top pair w/ nut flush draw - raise flop?
Hi lowpockets,
The only comments I have are: 1) The raise on the flop seems too large. Generally, for any bluff (a semi-bluff in particular), my feeling is that you want to pick the smallest amount to "get the job done." Here "get the job done" means that he either folds now, or if he calls, he checks the turn to give you the option of a free card. Given that you're dealing with an under-the-gun raiser, this board either probably really clobbered him or really missed him. Here the board is scary enough that villain is probably going to fold to just about any raise if the flop if it didn't clobber him. My gut is about $50 to $60 for a raise (between three to four times what he raised you). 2) With a slightly better read on the villain, I probably bluff this river with a bet that's anywhere from a little smaller to a little bigger than the size of the pot. There's no real hand with a Ten that he could have here. Since the villain only sat down a few hands ago, it is hard to gauge whether you can pull off such a bluff. However, the one piece of information you have going for you is that Villain doubled-up quickly in this session. Psychologically, he may be more inclined to fold to a substantial river bet in fear of so quickly losing back a large chunk of what he made on the first hand. Keep in mind too, that you're an unknown to him as well (which makes it more likely that he will fold since people generally take the conservative approach to players they've never tangled with). 
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#12
05-08-2006, 02:51 AM
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Re: Deep stacked $200NL top pair w/ nut flush draw - raise flop?
[ QUOTE ]
raise >> call [/ QUOTE ] I disagree, and I don't think that any of your arguments are very strong. [ QUOTE ] 1. we move off small aces (not very likely holding) 2. we give us a freecard. 3. it doesnt look like we have the flush and it is more likely that we get called when a flushcard hits. [/ QUOTE ] 1. No we don't, and we're just chopping, most of the time, anyway. 2. Sometimes... it also gets us blown off our hand sometimes. 3. If we take our free card, it's REALLL obvious that we have it when a flushcard hits. 4. We blow off hands that are drawing slim as hell. 5. We blow off flush draws, which will pay us HUGE when they hit.
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#13
05-08-2006, 02:54 AM
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Re: Deep stacked $200NL top pair w/ nut flush draw - raise flop?
[ QUOTE ]
Hi lowpockets, The only comments I have are: 1) The raise on the flop seems too large. Generally, for any bluff (a semi-bluff in particular), my feeling is that you want to pick the smallest amount to "get the job done." Here "get the job done" means that he either folds now, or if he calls, he checks the turn to give you the option of a free card. Given that you're dealing with an under-the-gun raiser, this board either probably really clobbered him or really missed him. Here the board is scary enough that villain is probably going to fold to just about any raise if the flop if it didn't clobber him. My gut is about $50 to $60 for a raise (between three to four times what he raised you). 2) With a slightly better read on the villain, I probably bluff this river with a bet that's anywhere from a little smaller to a little bigger than the size of the pot. There's no real hand with a Ten that he could have here. Since the villain only sat down a few hands ago, it is hard to gauge whether you can pull off such a bluff. However, the one piece of information you have going for you is that Villain doubled-up quickly in this session. Psychologically, he may be more inclined to fold to a substantial river bet in fear of so quickly losing back a large chunk of what he made on the first hand. Keep in mind too, that you're an unknown to him as well (which makes it more likely that he will fold since people generally take the conservative approach to players they've never tangled with). [/ QUOTE ] What hands are we bluffing out, guys? This doesn't make sense to me.
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#14
05-08-2006, 05:41 PM
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Re: Deep stacked $200NL top pair w/ nut flush draw - raise flop?
[ QUOTE ]
What hands are we bluffing out, guys? This doesn't make sense to me. [/ QUOTE ] Hi Big Jim, We would bluff out a set or two pair none of which beat the straight that Villain is probably afraid of. Hero's range is wide enough to include many hands with a ten (especially since he called on the button); e.g., the flop raise could have been with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I probably make this play only with a better read on the villain; i.e., 1) he is capable of reading that there is four to a straight on this board and 2) he is capable of folding a good hand in general. It seems that if you pick the right size bet (maybe a slight overbet...) it's +EV to bluff here against many players. I obviously don't have enough of a read to know whether it could be worth trying here, but it at least seems worth considering.
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#15
05-08-2006, 05:59 PM
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Re: Deep stacked $200NL top pair w/ nut flush draw - raise flop?
[ QUOTE ]
We would bluff out a set or two pair none of which beat the straight that Villain is probably afraid of. [/ QUOTE ] No we won't. Not nearly often enough to make this profitable, anyway. Maybe if he has worse than Aces up.... [ QUOTE ] Hero's range is wide enough to include many hands with a ten (especially since he called on the button); e.g., the flop raise could have been with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. [/ QUOTE ] This is like the only hand that makes any sense, that has a T in it. Maybe Tx[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but there aren't exactly a ton of combos of that. [ QUOTE ] I probably make this play only with a better read on the villain; i.e., 1) he is capable of reading that there is four to a straight on this board and 2) he is capable of folding a good hand in general. [/ QUOTE ] 3) He is a [censored] and doesn't realize that we almost never have a T, here. [ QUOTE ] It seems that if you pick the right size bet (maybe a slight overbet...) it's +EV to bluff here against many players. I obviously don't have enough of a read to know whether it could be worth trying here, but it at least seems worth considering. [/ QUOTE ] It's worth considering.... but only so you can ponder on how foolish it would be.
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#17
05-08-2006, 06:37 PM
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Re: Deep stacked $200NL top pair w/ nut flush draw - raise flop?
[ QUOTE ]
his raise doesn't have to bluff the guy out for it to be a good raise free card baby [/ QUOTE ] Cool. Don't bother reading my earlier response to that comment.
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