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  #1  
Old 11-25-2007, 06:52 PM
jkpickett jkpickett is offline
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Default Bankroll Management Question

A friend of mine who has been a successful sports bettor for 3-4 years now seems to have a flaw in his bankroll
management and I wanted to come here and get some input. Basically he readjusts his bankroll daily and I contend his is giving up too much value by doing this.

His argument is that his method is more conservative.
He also argues it lets his winning streaks compound fully.

I countered him by saying he is giving up too much value on his winning days following losing days which happen much more often that long streaks. (bounceback days 55% or so, win streaks 9-11%)

Shouldn't you have a large sample size of plays before readjusting or do it based on a longer time because your low % of BR risked on each play is a built-in mechanism for avoiding BUSTO?

I could be wrong in my thinking, but I would like to take his method he's teaching me and tweak it according to a few leaks I feel he has, thus making me more profitable.

Hope you guys will give some good input (that's why I came here). Take care.
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  #2  
Old 11-25-2007, 06:55 PM
Thremp Thremp is offline
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Default Re: Bankroll Management Question

You should readjust after every play ideally. Day by day is std since many events go off at once.

You are incorrect.
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  #3  
Old 11-25-2007, 06:56 PM
igetbadbeat igetbadbeat is offline
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Default Re: Bankroll Management Question

I like to readjust instantly or go with a set amount of gambling capital/power.

That is, kelly bet based on a set number like 30K. Of course the way i do it, this is much more conservative since obviously the true bankroll size would have to be at least double.
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  #4  
Old 11-25-2007, 06:59 PM
jkpickett jkpickett is offline
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Default Re: Bankroll Management Question

[ QUOTE ]
You should readjust after every play ideally. Day by day is std since many events go off at once.

You are incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

could you expound on that? is there math to back it up? i don't want this to come off as challenging you are calling you wrong, but i want to be able to present what you guys say to him in a detailed way if possible.
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  #5  
Old 11-25-2007, 07:01 PM
Thremp Thremp is offline
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Default Re: Bankroll Management Question

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should readjust after every play ideally. Day by day is std since many events go off at once.

You are incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

could you expound on that? is there math to back it up? i don't want this to come off as challenging you are calling you wrong, but i want to be able to present what you guys say to him in a detailed way if possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he uses Kelly Criterion (which is best) you readjust. If he is using % of bankroll you readjust as well.

Seems like he is using one or the other. He should be familiar with both systems if he cares enough to readjust his bet sizes.
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  #6  
Old 11-25-2007, 07:07 PM
jkpickett jkpickett is offline
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Default Re: Bankroll Management Question

Well I know you readjust, but why every play rather than a set number of plays (say 150 or so). is there math behind this?
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  #7  
Old 11-25-2007, 07:08 PM
Thremp Thremp is offline
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Default Re: Bankroll Management Question

[ QUOTE ]
Well I know you readjust, but why every play rather than a set number of plays (say 150 or so). is there math behind this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm... Because you'll increase RoR by overbetting?
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  #8  
Old 11-25-2007, 07:09 PM
igetbadbeat igetbadbeat is offline
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Default Re: Bankroll Management Question

[ QUOTE ]
Well I know you readjust, but why every play rather than a set number of plays (say 150 or so). is there math behind this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is more accurate(assuming GW Bushi isn't involved)

The estimates of who's winning the election, or the actual counted votes?
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  #9  
Old 11-25-2007, 08:03 PM
jkpickett jkpickett is offline
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Default Re: Bankroll Management Question

alrighty well thanks then
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