400nl deep bluff

[DiceMan14]

Looks like a blocker bet with QQ, TT. Your shove represents AK, which does conform with your line. I dont think there are too many hands other than JJ hes calling with here OOP. I like the shove.

[keikiwai]

[ QUOTE ]
keik, you don't think he has a J ever and you also don't think we can call??

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry.... forgot about counterfeiting.....
which leans it a little toward calling

i still don't think calling w a J is good here... i mean AK is a reasonable hand for you (even w turn ch)

[FionnMac]

looks good

[blah-blah-blah]

lets say his range is QQ/AJ/JTs/TT-88 (reasonable imo), and assume he folds QQ 60% and Jx 40%. lets compare call vs. shove.

36 combos of TT-88, 24 combos of QQ/AJ/JTs so:

Call EV: +$510 x 60% + -$170 x 40% = +$238

Shove EV: +$510 x (60% + (20% x 60%) + (20% x 40%)) + (-$548.10 x (20% x 40% + 20% x 60%) = +$298.38

dunno what a realistic fold % would be but if we assume he folds QQ and Jx w/ the same frequency, he needs to fold about 35.7% of the time to make it as much EV as calling.

[craig1120]

People saying QQ: You think he expects OP to call w/ A high often enough to be value betting QQ on the river? Seems unlikely.

I agree with OP that villain has a J like over 75% of the time. That being said, I really don't know if it's a good bluff or not. I think I like it though.

[AAismyfriend]

I agree that calling has a lot of merit here for obvious reasons but you can easily rep AK here with this line, and make him fold QQ, so shoving is much better IMO. nh.

[Irish Mafia]

If I were villain i'd call w/ a J. That being said I don't think villain has a J that often - I mean is he expecting hands like QQ, AK, AA to: a) bet the turn (as opposed to checking behind); and b) call a CR? I would think a J would raise the flop and/or lead turn.