NL50: AQ in BB versus LAG+bunch of TAG callers.

[z28dreams]

Maybe it's just me, but in home games and these low stakes, I almost ALWAYS get called when I squeeze here and end up missing the flop.

[Check_The_Nuts]

Just cold calling, only did ~100 million games which probably isn't enough:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.606% 24.06% 01.54% 24501342 1573005.67 { 44+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, ATo+, KTo+ }
Hand 1: 25.252% 24.85% 00.40% 25302652 411104.67 { TT-22, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s }
Hand 2: 21.681% 21.09% 00.59% 21480180 597591.17 { TT-22, A8s-A2s, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, JTo, T9o }
Hand 3: 27.462% 26.02% 01.44% 26497228 1467099.50 { AQo }

even this seems pretty wide for a cold calling range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.559% 28.36% 08.20% 27681904 8000415.50 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 63.441% 55.24% 08.20% 53918593 8000415.50 { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }

more reasonable equity postflop:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.200% 38.00% 06.20% 50754650 8278196.50 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 55.800% 49.60% 06.20% 66248669 8278196.50 { 77+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }

My problem with reraising is the equity disadvantage against his calling range. I had JJ in a similar spot and tried reraising instead of calling yesterday. An A flopped and I checked flop+turn, folding to a turn bet.

I find it interesting Jam says reraise though. In your games are you finding people cold call a wider range than I'm giving them credit for? Or do you think the 8% increase in equity is worth it?

[traz]

Squeezing is definitely ++++EV here. All players fold a huge percentage of their range, so any calculations based on his calling range or anything passed your raise become largely irrelevant. The squeeze will make up for any loss of equity there (which really isn't even alot)

[Check_The_Nuts]

traz:

your hand is almost impossible to play postflop though. Wouldn't a squeeze be better with 95s here than AQo?

Just by the equity distadvantage I mean.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

424,651,392 games 0.005 secs 84,930,278,400 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.348% 68.10% 00.25% 289180096 1061442.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 31.652% 31.40% 00.25% 133348412 1061442.00 { 54s }


not much difference.

[traz]

It's not the equity that really matters, it's how easy the hand is to play post flop. AQo is infinitely easier to play because you're alot more confident when you hit, and when the flop misses, you still have room to play with.

If we assume TT+/AQ+ is the calling range, then that means he's folding almost 9/10 times to our 3bet. And that doesn't even account for the times he calls and folds on the flop.

The equity calculations are largely meaningless and deceptive. There are SO many situations in poker where situational advantages are more important than card equity.

Given all of your options, squeezing is the most profitable by a mile imo.

[kaz2107]

look... yes it sucks when u r called preflop after u squeeze but u arent called all that often and win a decent pot with no flop a good percent of the time and when u cold call it is IMPOSSIBLE to play AQ oop against 3 compotent opponents without imputus. i would rather fold preflop then call. for this exact reason. wut hands is villian calling with the way u played the hand that u beat??? and how else could u play the hand to mak it much better. so many set/2pair/combo draws available that tptk in a 4 handed pot is behind a good majority of the time. please 3 bet preflop and get it heads or take down the pot now without a flop.

also in the ranges u r makin u r not takin out AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or AK from the peoples ranges that they r just cold calling with either thus makin ur poker stove stuff no good imo