NL200 99 OOP, I never know when to donkbet

[Xanta]

I didn't feel great about this flop. I think that I'm ahead most of the time here, but if I c/c flop I end up c/f a lot of turns which I'm obviously not thrilled about so I donkbet. Someone give me a better reason for doing whatever you want to do here. Comments on turn appreciated too, felt stupid and weak/tight.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $195.00
Hero (BB): $216.60
UTG: $185.40
CO: $188.00
BTN: $166.32

Reads: <font color="blue">PFR is 25/20/3 and is a little wide from the CO
Cold caller is new, mostly loose and passive and seems a little fishy. Too early to tell anything though. Didn't really feel like squeezing preflop.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $8.00</font>, BTN calls $8.00, SB folds, Hero calls $6.00

Flop: ($25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $16.00</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $16.00

Turn: ($57) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $31.00</font>, Hero folds

Pot Size: $88.00

[Chicago Twister]

This flop bet sucks because you're just bluffing, but your hand is worth more than a bluff. If you're called like you are you don't know where you are, but you know you're marginal and out of position. If you're raised you have to fold but you could still be folding the best hand, which sucks. CR flop or c flop lead turn is much better than bet-fold here.

[Xanta]

Chi, I don't think that's neccesarily true. People do like to fold on paired boards (so I'm leading them with air a lot) but I still get looked up by 8x, draws, and maybe 55-77 here pretty often.

C/R flop gets more out of hands that I beat I guess, but once I raise it's still just a bluff. C/C flop lead turn works well on blank turns, but any club or overcard isn't making me real happy if I take that line. I still like this better than donkbetting and c/r though.

[Chicago Twister]

The problem with your bluff lead is the range of a caller versus the range of someone who calls your checkraise. Like you said you get looked up light, by 55+ maybe. But you saw what happened here. You got looked up on the flop end ended up in a spot where you had to fold the turn. You're going to be folding a lot of turns this way when you lead the flop &amp; check the turn because a lot of the light stuff that called on the flop now bets on the turn when they see you are fos. By betting the flop you essentially set yourself for a perfect float. But when you check-raise the flop they cant call with that light stuff anymore. They cant even cal with some hands that beat you. So yeah, checkraise is a bluff. But unlike leading the flop, its a bluff that can work.

[Chicago Twister]

Put another way, leading the flop results in you folding a lot of turns whereas check-raising the flop results in opponents folding more flops. Which is better?

[Xanta]

I was about to post something dumb like 'how is 99 different from 27 here if we c/r' but if it checks through we obviously have some SD equity.

Once I've bet the flop, is there any merit in b/f the turn as it came? I feel like floats are going to raise the turn much less frequently then they're going to bet it when checked to.

[FishSticks]

Xanta -

I don't really like donking this flop, just because it looks kind of bluffy and I think you might get raised light here and end up folding the winner. We have a good hand and it'd be nice to show it down somehow. Check and see what happens, lot of scenarios out there with 2 people behind.

I also think most of Chitown's advice about c/r flop is off the mark.

[ikestoys]

screw the flop play, you need to squeeze in this situation 100%, esp given your reads. don't puss out on making the right play

[chiTown22]

[ QUOTE ]
Xanta -

I don't really like donking this flop, just because it looks kind of bluffy and I think you might get raised light here and end up folding the winner. We have a good hand and it'd be nice to show it down somehow. Check and see what happens, lot of scenarios out there with 2 people behind.

I also think most of Chitown's advice about c/r flop is off the mark.

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't give any advice? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ElDuque]

First, you should have squeezed, esp considering PFR% or raiser is 20. Second, you should have check folded the flop.

As played, easy fold.

The majority of the time in ring games you need to play 99 either very aggressively or purely for set mining. Getting involved with 99 oop with overs on the board is a very, very sticky situation.